US Economics Focus Participation rate will continue to fall The decline in the participation rate is almost entirely due to structural factors and there is little prospect of a rebound in the next few years. The downward trend in the participation rate... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italian and Irish budgets highlight contrasting fortunes While in last week’s Budget the Irish Government talked up its proposed tax cuts, the big picture was one of continued fiscal consolidation. All else equal, this will drag on growth. But Ireland’s... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will Mr Osborne come to regret his “fiscal charter”? Chancellor George Osborne was last week able to pass his new “fiscal charter”, forcing current and future governments to run a budget surplus during “normal times”. But the Chancellor may come to... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The changing shape of the UK economy - The winners and the losers Beneath the surface, it is clear that the economic recovery has not been firing on all cylinders recently. And the recovery faces a number of headwinds over the next year or so – in particular the re... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s labour recovery won’t stop Riksbank cutting The improvement in Sweden’s labour market in recent months has exceeded consensus expectations and those of the Riksbank. But conditions are still far from healthy and wage growth remains subdued... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Immigration won’t transform Germany’s growth outlook The influx of refugees into Germany has caused much speculation about the costs to the government and possible benefits to the economy. But while the trend presents opportunities for the long term, it... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (Sep.) While the fall in employment in September is unlikely to significantly alter the RBA's view of the economy, we think that a sustained weakening in the labour market will contribute to the RBA cutting... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s labour recovery won’t stop Riksbank cutting The improvement in Sweden’s labour market in recent months has exceeded consensus expectations and those of the Riksbank. But conditions are still far from healthy and wage growth remains subdued... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (August) Jobs numbers continue to point to healthy occupier demand conditions. And although the pace of job creation in London has cooled, demand fundamentals in the regions still looks solid. 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Aug./Sep.) The latest labour market statistics confirmed that the jobs recovery is back on track after the dip in employment in the spring. Meanwhile, the easing in pay growth has further reduced the case for a... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Global uncertainty adds to downside risks The European economy has performed relatively well over recent months amid financial market unrest and signs of a slowdown elsewhere. But the euro-zone’s exporters are still not benefitting from the... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Emerging Asia set for recovery The jump in Egyptian inflation to 9.2% y/y in September was driven almost entirely by a rise in the volatile food component. While we do expect inflation to fall back again, last month’s data mean an... 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) The labour market continued to withstand the oil shock in September, churning out a moderate gain of 12,100 jobs. This wasn’t enough, however, to prevent an increase in the unemployment rate to 7.1%... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the recovery running out of steam? A raft of gloomy survey data has fuelled fears that the UK’s economic recovery is running out of steam. There are some indications that quarterly GDP growth will moderate from 0.7% in Q2 to 0.5% or so... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Better news from China only a reprieve The rebound we expect in China over the next few quarters should come as a relief to Australian policymakers and many investors. But long-run prospects for iron ore demand, which makes up more than... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Softer economic news further alleviates need for hike The MPC’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5% this month would have been an easy one given the recent softening in both domestic and global economic news. While financial markets have... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
