Global Economics Update What are the prospects for labour markets and wages? Unemployment rates in the US, euro-zone, Japan, and UK are likely to continue falling gradually over the coming years. However, the prospects for wage growth in these four economies vary considerably. 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi consumer spending to weaken further as fiscal squeeze bites Despite recent media reports espousing the resilience of Saudi consumers in the face of lower oil prices, a number of indicators suggest that household spending in the Kingdom has softened in recent... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Oct.) While the rebound in consumer confidence in October suggests that consumer spending will continue to recover, the renewed fall in household inflation expectations should ring alarm bells at the Bank... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3) The stark deterioration in labour market conditions in New Zealand in the third quarter pretty much guarantees that the RBNZ will cut rates to 2.5% at the meeting in December, from 2.75% now. What's... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Growth steady but slow Early indications from business surveys suggest that the euro-zone economy has continued to grow at a steady but slow pace at the beginning of the fourth quarter. For example, the composite PMI... 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Consumer Prices, Household Spending (Sep.) The renewed rise in inflation excl. fresh food and energy in September would provide a reason for the Bank of Japan to leave policy settings unchanged later today. But the rebound in underlying... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets pressure ECB to deliver Policymakers at the ECB have seemingly been priming the markets for additional stimulus to be announced in December. With some form of easing now priced into the market, the Bank is under pressure to... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Mr Osborne’s tax credit options Mr Osborne has various options to soften the impact of his cuts in tax credits, but all of them will cost him some money. Admittedly, this might “only” be a couple of billion for a couple of years... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Oct.) & Unemployment (Sep.) While the euro-zone avoided a second straight month of falling prices in October, the absence of inflation in the region keeps the pressure firmly on the ECB to expand its QE programme in December. 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Household Spending (Sep.) The renewed rise in inflation excl. fresh food and energy in September would provide a reason for the Bank of Japan to leave policy settings unchanged later today. But the rebound in underlying... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth probably rebounded in October Our econometric model indicates that non-farm payrolls rose by a stronger 200,000 in October, up from an average monthly gain of 167,000 over the prior three months. Whether that would be sufficient... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi Arabia begins to tighten its belt The past month has brought the clearest signs yet that a fiscal squeeze in Saudi Arabia is looming. According to leaked memos, the Ministry of Finance has ordered government entities to halt new... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Times a-changin’ in Argentina? The surprise outcome of the presidential election in Argentina has raised the prospect of a shift towards more market-friendly policymaking, following 12 years of populism under successive Kirchner... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB QE expansion now more likely than ever ECB President Mario Draghi surprised many with his very dovish comments at the press conference that followed last week’s ECB Governing Council meeting. But he remained coy about what tools the Bank... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Growth in Taiwan to recover after weak third quarter Figures due to be released over the coming week are likely to show that growth in Taiwan slowed sharply last quarter. However, with prospects for exports improving and domestic demand likely to remain... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack “Good” deflation returns The latest consumer prices figures showed that CPI inflation turned negative again in September. Although the current period of negative inflation should prove to be short lived and shallow, inflation... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
