US Economics Update Yellen reiterates that lift-off still likely later this year Fed Chair Janet Yellen's latest comments don't change our view that the Fed is still on track for a September lift-off. Furthermore, we expect rising wage growth and core inflation to trigger a much... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment data (May) Today’s employment data present the first fall in employment for two years. However, the broader trend is one of improvement in the labour market. In particular, strong earnings growth is likely to... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (May/Jun.) The soft tone of the labour market figures should temper expectations of a near-term interest rate rise following yesterday’s relatively hawkish comments by some MPC members. Although the fall in... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French CPI (Jun.) France’s June inflation data confirmed that price pressures remain very subdued in the euro-zone’s second-largest economy. And the substantial slack in the labour market means that core inflation is... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Growth stabilises on brokerage boom, policy easing Q2’s stronger-than-consensus GDP growth partly reflects an unsustainable surge in financial sector activity that will prove short-lived. Even so, there are plenty of positive signs on broader economic... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Labour shortages won’t derail homebuilding recovery Recent survey data suggest that the recovery in housing starts would have been stronger if not for shortages of labour within some specialised trades. But although a scarcity of labour may be... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Reasons to be cheerful Given the ongoing troubles in the euro-zone and fears about a slowdown in China, one could be forgiven for adopting something of a gloomy mood. However, there are plenty of reasons to remain cheerful... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Decline in the participation rate is mostly structural The decline in the labour participation rate to a near 40-year low of 62.6% in June largely reflects structural factors, such as the aging population, rather than cyclical weakness. 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Slump in investment could worsen in the second half The 2015 investment intentions survey suggests that real private and public investment will fall more sharply than most people realise this year. This is the strongest indication so far that, what... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) June's modest 6,400 drop back in employment, which follows the surprisingly strong 58,900 increase in May, should help to quell fears that the economy is tanking. Even so, with the much weaker... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update France's economic recovery will continue to disappoint The French economy’s decent start to 2015 is unlikely to have been sustained in Q2. Looking further ahead, we think that the recovery will struggle to gain significant pace over the next few years. In... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Jun.) The small rise in Czech headline and core inflation in June provides early evidence that the recent labour market improvements and the strength of domestic demand are starting to feed through to... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Australia Employment (Jun.) The continued resilience of the labour market in June seems odd given the economic challenges that Australia is facing. As such, we expect that an easing in jobs growth and a rise in the unemployment... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Jun.) Today’s Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) suggests that industrial output is no longer falling, but a rapid rebound is not on the cards either. 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Another rate hike to shore up shilling The surprise move by Kenya’s Monetary Policy Committee to hike its key interest rate by 150bp today, for the second consecutive meeting, was a signal that the new Governor is serious about curbing... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Greek crisis a sideshow for world economy The global economy is likely to expand at a decent pace in the second half ofthe year, despite escalating tensions in Greece and the recent gyrations in China’s equity market. Business surveys have... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
