India Economics Update Labour market reform: can Mr Modi learn lessons from the states? Slow progress in liberalising India’s rigid labour market has been one of the biggest disappointments of PM Modi’s first year in power, but there are signs of improvement at state level, most notably... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Rise in oil prices has eased risk of deflation The rebound in global oil prices since January means it is all but certain that headline inflation in advanced economies will pick up sharply towards the end of the year. For most countries, this has... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian households will be slow to feel recovery Italy’s economy looks set to grow again in Q2. But households there will remain under enormous pressure for the foreseeable future, which has implications for the strength of the recovery and support... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Flagging economy will prompt more rate cuts The futures market indicates that most investors are now convinced by the Bank of Canada's view that the January interest rate cut will be enough to prevent the economy from being derailed by the... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Outlook for periphery’s exporters is improving The depreciation of the euro over the past year or so appears to be finally starting to help euro-zone exporters. The latest data show that annual growth in euro-zone export values picked up to 7.3%... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Reviving investment helping economy to rebalance Although net trade dragged on GDP growth in the first quarter, a more encouraging development from the point of view of a rebalancing of the economy was the 1.7% quarterly rise in real business... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Apr.) & Retail Sales (Apr.) The latest euro-zone unemployment and retail sales data point to a further gradual improvement for consumers at the start of Q2, indicating that household spending is likely to remain a key driver of... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (May) May’s rise in euro-zone HICP inflation will offer some relief to the ECB, but with underlying price pressures still very weak and the recovery seemingly slowing, strong monetary policy support will be... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Apr.) We wouldn’t read too much into the rebound in wage growth in April. In fact, we think that labour costs will continue to grow far too slowly to create broad-based price pressure. 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is real GDP really mis-measured? The evidence of a seasonal quirk in the first-quarter GDP growth figures is pretty overwhelming. The same skewed pattern appears to have repeated itself this year too, with the 0.7% contraction in GDP... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Who benefits from the recovery in national income? Households have benefitted less from the plunge in energy prices and the surge in overseas investment income than other sectors. With wage growth set to remain subdued, we think that consumer spending... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Household Spending, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Apr.) With economic activity sluggish and price pressures subdued despite a tighter labour market, we remain convinced that the Bank of Japan will have to step up the pace of easing before too long. 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market appears to be strengthening Our econometric model points to a 280,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May and we also expect the unemployment rate to edge down to 5.3%. 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Indonesia still looks vulnerable Today’s handover from military to civilian rule in Myanmar marks another welcome step forward in the country’s political development. But the new government must overcome a number of major challenges... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Slowdown in spending in Q1 won’t be long-lasting Whilst the second estimate of Q1 GDP confirmed that household spending growth slowed a touch at the start of the year, rising nominal wages, falling unemployment and the boost from lower food and... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is the worst really over for Russia? The slump in activity data for April put an end to hopes raised in some parts of the government (and markets) that the worst is over for the Russian economy. The steep falls in output are likely to be... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
