US Chart Pack US economy not at risk from modest China slowdown Central European bonds and currencies have been remarkably resilient during the recent turmoil in the global financial markets. In contrast, Turkish markets have been hit by fresh concerns about the... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update When will Finland’s unemployment rate start to fall? Finland’s unemployment rate has been on the rise for the best part of three years. While we do not think that it will climb much further, we do not expect it to fall much over the next few years... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update When will Finland’s unemployment rate start to fall? Finland’s unemployment rate has been on the rise for the best part of three years. While we do not think that it will climb much further, we do not expect it to fall much over the next few years... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s fiscal consolidation hampered by low inflation Inflation dynamics continue to hamper Portugal’s attempts to deal with its huge debt problems. The country may need to implement more fiscal austerity as it struggles to pay down its debt. 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy struggling to escape recession Since oil prices first began to fall last year, Canada’s economic performance has gone from mediocre to dismal, culminating in a mild recession in the first half of this year. With oil prices tumbling... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The very muted 0.1% m/m gains in both headline and core CPI in July will certainly give the Fed pause for thought in whether to raise interest rates or not at the next FOMC meeting in mid September... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prime Office Rental Growth Hides Finland’s Ugly Truth Finland’s year-long recession has been reflected in weakening demand for commercial property space. Yet, as occupiers have traded-up, prime property has performed exceptionally well. However, we... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How fast can Spain grow? The relief rally in Chinese equities prompted by additional policy stimulus has turned global sentiment around, but a sustained recovery in commodity prices will probably require hard evidence that... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rising unit labour costs a danger to the US stock market Weak productivity growth and rising wage inflation are likely to put upward pressure on unit labour costs in the US over the coming year, squeeze profit margins and cap the upside for the stock market... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Negative inflation will return soon CPI inflation probably held steady at zero in July, but the recent fall in oil prices suggests that the UK is likely to experience another bout of negative inflation before the end of the year... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Reform agenda hits another roadblock The ruling BJP's efforts to push through important economic reforms in the monsoon session of parliament, which finishes today, have been largely unsuccessful. Looking ahead, with attention soon... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Jun./Jul.) The latest labour market figures supported the current consensus view on the Monetary Policy Committee that interest rates do not need to rise before the end of the year. 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment data (Jun) From a property perspective the latest dip in job creation needs to be offset against the corresponding rise in productivity and profits that it implies. And if we are right that the falls in... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Slump in productivity growth is the no.1 economic problem Ignore the 1.3% annualised rebound in non-farm productivity in the second quarter, which barely reversed the 1.1% decline in the first quarter. The bigger story is the almost unprecedented weakness of... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery unlikely to slow sharply next year Strong growth in household spending this year will give way to a weaker performance in 2016. But this slowdown will not be severe and the medium-term outlook is bright. 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul.) Employment increased by 6,600 in July, more evidence that the recent declines in output haven't been severe enough to induce employers to slash jobs. For the time being that's comforting. But if the... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
