Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan signals next move in rates is still up The Bank of Japan left rates on hold after its regular meeting today, as was universally expected. The main interest therefore lies in the Bank’s latest assessment of the economy and in Governor Fukui... 22nd January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Have interest rate expectations fallen too far? Expectations for UK interest rates have plummeted over the last few weeks. While we think that rates will eventually have to fall a long way, there must now be a risk that “hawkish” communications... 21st January 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policy tightening set to resume in Poland (Jan 08) The focus this month will be on Poland, where we expect the National Bank to raise interest rates by 25bps in response to rising inflationary pressures. We expect policymakers elsewhere in the region... 18th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower LIBOR will not prevent interest rates falling to 4% The rapid fall in interbank interest rates towards more normal levels is a welcome development but does not negate the need for further cuts in official interest rates. The growing emergence that the... 11th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB hawkish for now, but next move will be down M. Trichet’s hawkish tone at today’s press conference confirmed that the ECB is unlikely to follow other major central banks in cutting interest rates in the near future. However, a further slowdown... 10th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK rates still heading for 4% Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to leave interest rates on hold was purely a matter of timing. With the Committee apparently agreed that a significant monetary loosening is required... 10th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK rates still heading for 4% Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to leave interest rates on hold was purely a matter of timing. With the Committee apparently agreed that a significant monetary loosening is required... 10th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Falling pound won't do the MPC's job for it The recent sharp fall in the sterling trade-weighted exchange rate represents a loosening of monetary conditions in the UK economy. However, it is unlikely to prevent the Monetary Policy Committee... 7th January 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Hawkish stance to soften in H2 Concerns about the inflation outlook in the eurozone are likely to keep the ECB firmly in hawkish mood in the early months of 2008. But slowing activity, falling overseas interest rates and the... 3rd January 2008 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Another nail-biter After a nail-biter in December, January’s interest rate decision is shaping up to be just as close. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) seems pretty certain that rates need to fall significantly... 3rd January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Surging oil price won't stop interest rates falling a long way The rise in the oil price close to, and briefly through, the $100 per barrel level has prompted renewed concern over inflation. But the equally worrying implications for activity suggest that the... 3rd January 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB likely to stay on hold for some time The SNB was never likely to shock markets with an interest rate hike today, particularly in the current environment of uncertainty. While the Bank seems to have maintained a slight tightening bias, we... 13th December 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank’s tightening cycle not yet over The Norges Bank’s decision to raise interest rates today for the third time since the beginning of thefinancial market turmoil is in stark contrast to the actions of some other central banks. Given... 12th December 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policymakers to pause before Christmas break (Dec 07) As usual, December’s rate setting meetings in Central Europe have been brought forward a week to avoid a clash with the Christmas break. We expect interest rates to remain on hold across the region... 6th December 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How far will the ECB lag behind? The markets and most forecasters believe that the European Central Bank will sit on its hands and leave euro-zone interest rates unchanged throughout 2008 while the US Fed and UK MPC both loosen... 5th December 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland and Czech Rep. to hike, Hungary to cut (Nov 07) Brace yourselves for what could be an actionpacked series of rate-setting meetings next week. A 25bps hike in Polish interest rates is pretty much guaranteed following the spike in inflation last... 19th November 2007 · 1 min read
