BoE Watch A brief pause Disagreement on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has intensified between those members who are more worried about the near-term inflation outlook and those whose concerns centre on the weakening... 1st May 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Japan drops tightening bias The Bank of Japan left rates on hold today, as universally expected, but the tone of its twice-yearly “Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices” is more dovish than we at least had anticipated. In... 30th April 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan drops tightening bias The Bank of Japan left rates on hold today, as universally expected, but the tone of its twice-yearly “Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices” is more dovish than we at least had anticipated. In... 30th April 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian rates on hold but industry will still feel the pinch The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) defied market expectations by keeping interest rates on hold today and instead announcing another increase in the cash reserve ratio, to 8.25% (with effect from 24th... 29th April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Inflation concerns to delay the ECB The European Central Bank’s continued hawkishness suggests that euro-zone interest rates are now unlikely to fall before the third quarter of this year at the earliest. But we still think rates will... 24th April 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish and Norwegian interest rates should have peaked As expected, the Swedish Riksbank kept interest rates on hold today while the Norges Bank raised rates to 5.50%. But while the markets apparently see little chance of rates falling in 2008, we expect... 23rd April 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Banks turn hawkish (Mar 08) Central Banks across the region are turning increasingly hawkish in response to rising inflationary pressures and turmoil in global financial markets. We expect interest rates to be hiked in Poland... 21st April 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Still in hawkish mode (Apr 08) Emerging Europe Central Bank Watch 1 Apr. 2008 EMERGING EUROPE CENTRAL BANK WATCH Policymakers across the region remain in hawkish mode. A sharp spike in wage growth is likely to prompt another 50bps... 21st April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rate cuts are reducing aggregate mortgage payments The rise in mortgage payments facing borrowers coming off fixed rate mortgages has fuelled talk of monetary policy “pushing on a string”. In fact, the fall in payments of households with tracker or... 16th April 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB still talking tough After leaving interest rates unchanged for a tenth consecutive month today, the European Central Bank maintained a tough stance on inflation. But with the economy clearly slowing and the Bank hinting... 10th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update On the way to 3.5% The continued problems in the financial markets and the associated tightening of credit conditions in the end made today’s 25bps cut in interest rates to 5% almost a sure thing. We think that interest... 10th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update On the way to 3.5% The continued problems in the financial markets and the associated tightening of credit conditions in the end made today’s 25bps cut in interest rates to 5% almost a sure thing. We think that interest... 10th April 2008 · 1 min read
BoE Watch The next step towards 3.5% The dilemma facing the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has not got any easier to resolve. Inflation expectations have risen further and yet borrowers have started to suffer even more at the hands of... 3rd April 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Not ready to signal rate cut The ECB seems likely to maintain a hawkish tone at April’s Governing Council meeting and press conference, suggesting that it has no immediate plans to cut interest rates. But as the economy slows... 3rd April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK interest rates heading for 3.5% No, it’s not an April fool’s joke. With the UK economy facing very similar economic imbalances to those unwinding with such devastating effect in the US, we now expect GDP growth to average just 1% in... 1st April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK interest rates heading for 3.5% No, it’s not an April fool’s joke. With the UK economy facing very similar economic imbalances to those unwinding with such devastating effect in the US, we now expect GDP growth to average just 1% in... 1st April 2008 · 1 min read
