UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Feb.) The hawkish tone of February’s UK MPC minutes suggests that the chances of a near-term interest rate rise are higher than previously thought. Indeed, we would now put the chances of a May hike at... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary rates on hold but doubts over fiscal plans persist The National Bank of Hungary kept rates unchanged at 6% earlier today, as expected, bringing to an end a short-lived tightening cycle that had spanned three months. Inflation is likely to slow over... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Near-term rate outlook still finely balanced We readily admit that we toyed last week with putting a near-term rate rise into our forecast. But, on balance, we are still not quite convinced that a rate rise is now more likely than not. 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean rates to rise further The Central Bank of Chile (CBC) hiked interest rates by 25bps to 3.5% last night. Growing economic imbalances and the threat of higher inflation mean that rates will rise further over the coming... 17th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey shifts to 'wait and see' mode The Central Bank of Turkey kept interest rates on hold at 6.25% earlier this month and is now in ‘wait and see’ mode to evaluate the impact of its unconventional experiment with monetary policy... 17th February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam's base rate hike a step in the right direction Vietnam’s central bank hiked its policy rate by a larger-than-expected 200bp to 11% today, which follows on from last week’s devaluation of the dong against US dollar. It appears that policymakers are... 17th February 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank becoming more hawkish As expected, the Swedish Riksbank responded to the economy’s ongoing robust revival by raising interest rates and revising up its interest rate forecast. Nonetheless, we still think that weaker than... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers in 'wait and see' mode Today’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 6.25% suggests that the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) has reached the end of its rate-cutting cycle. While policymakers’ unconventional policy... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Despite the acceleration in the growth rate of the narrow M1 monetary aggregate, the growth of the broader M2 aggregate remains muted and our M3 measure is still shrinking. 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan's assessment still too sanguine The conclusion of the Bank of Japan’s two-day Policy Board meeting was as close as these occasions can be to a non-event. However, the Bank’s economic view (upgraded today) looks over-optimistic and... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish Riksbank becoming more hawkish As expected, the Swedish Riksbank responded to the economy’s ongoing robust revival by raising interest rates and revising up its interest rate forecast. Nonetheless, we still think that weaker than... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea's central bank bides its time The Bank of Korea (BoK) unexpectedly held its policy rate at 2.75% today. Nonetheless, core inflation has surged and looks set to climb further while GDP growth should pick up too. The upshot is that... 11th February 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian rates edge higher, other measures to be deployed The Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) hiked interest rates by 25bps to 3.5% last night. With the economy booming and inflation pressures building, further rate hikes will probably follow over the... 11th February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate hikes in the Philippines only a matter of time The Philippines’ central bank (BSP) kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.0% today, as expected. We are sticking with our long-held view that rates need to move up this year to ensure that inflation... 10th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC should hold its nerve There had been little to suggest that the Committee had altered its view since the last meeting, so the no-change decision today was of little surprise. However, the next meeting – coinciding with May... 10th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the MPC acting asymmetrically? The MPC’s reluctance to raise interest rates despite persistently high inflation has led to accusations that it has been inconsistent in its treatment of its inflation target. However, there may be... 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
