Europe Economics Update ECB not pre-disposed to further rate hikes A softer tone from the European Central Bank has supported our view that today’s interest rate hike will not be the first in a series. Indeed, given more signs lately of a marked slowdown in economic... 3rd July 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank signals further rate increases The decision by the Riksbank to raise interest rates from 4.25% to 4.50% was widely expected, but the Bank’s signal that rates could rise twice more this year shows that it believes the economy will... 3rd July 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank signals further rate increases The decision by the Riksbank to raise interest rates from 4.25% to 4.50% was widely expected, but the Bank’s signal that rates could rise twice more this year shows that it believes the economy will... 3rd July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Next rate move in Australia will be a cut We think that Australian interest rates will be cut by the end of this year and eventually fall to 6% (from 7.25%) by the end of 2009. In contrast, the markets are currently pricing in a 75% chance... 2nd July 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Rate hike will prove to be a one-off The ECB will deliver the signalled interest rate hike this month, despite further evidence of a slowdown in economic activity in the euro-zone. Inflation fears could keep the Bank in hawkish mode for... 26th June 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank responds to inflation concerns The Norges Bank’s decision to raise interest rates again today clearly shows that it remains concerned about rising inflationary pressures. This will support the Norwegian krone in the near term. 25th June 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank responds to inflation concerns The Norges Bank’s decision to raise interest rates again today clearly shows that it remains concerned about rising inflationary pressures. This will support the Norwegian krone in the near term. 25th June 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India tries to get ahead of the curve with more rate hikes The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) today announced a 50bp hike in the repurchase rate, to 8.5%, and plans for two 25bp hikes in the cash reserve ratio next month, taking it to 8.75%. The move is an... 24th June 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB on hold; next move still likely to be a cut The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave its target range for three-month interest rates on hold (at a mid-point of 2.75%) was a relief amid concerns that inflation fears might force the Bank to... 19th June 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB on hold; next move still likely to be a cut The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave its target range for three-month interest rates on hold (at amid-point of 2.75%) was a relief amid concerns that inflation fears might force the Bank to... 19th June 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Banks still in tightening mode (Jun 08) 17th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would cause interest rates to rise? The recent shift in market expectations for UK interest rates has been nothing short of dramatic. As Chart 1 shows, having previously been pricing in sharp falls in interest rates, the short sterling... 10th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would cause interest rates to rise? The recent shift in market expectations for UK interest rates has been nothing short of dramatic. As Chart 1 shows, having previously been pricing in sharp falls in interest rates, the short sterling... 10th June 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB signals intention to hike The European Central Bank sent a strong signal today that it is likely to raise interest rates in July or August. But the Bank’s inflation phobia clearly increases the risks of a sharp slowdown in the... 5th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC’s inaction points to deeper downturn The MPC‘s inaction on interest rates today confirms that inflation concerns are still hindering the Committee’s ability to respond to the ever-gloomier news on activity. The result will be a deeper... 5th June 2008 · 1 min read
