Emerging Europe Economics Focus Slovakia: kicking out the koruna We expect Slovakia to be given the go-ahead to join the euro-zone from January next year, despite concerns over mounting medium-term inflationary pressures. This should give a renewed impetus to... 26th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC’s fears over inflation expectations appear overdone The MPC remains concerned that inflation expectations will fail to drop back later this year even as inflation itself falls. After all, this is exactly what happened last year. Nonetheless, there are... 21st February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pay growth remains well-behaved Today’s various releases brought tentative signs that the threat of a sharp pick-up in pay growth during the main start-of-year pay round is failing to materialise. Accordingly, this appears to be at... 20th February 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency weakness to prompt hike in Hungary (Feb 08) The focus this month will be on Hungary, where a recent drop in the forint could prompt a 50bps hike in interest rates. Elsewhere, another 25bps cut is possible in Turkey depending on currency... 19th February 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India: weathering the storm The latest data suggest that the Indian economy is holding up well despite the slowdown in the West. New statistics on output and prices suggest that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is under reduced... 13th February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank raises rates to 4.25% The surprise decision by the Swedish Riksbank to raise interest rates from 4.0% to 4.25% today confirmed that it remains concerned about the outlook for inflation. And with its latest interest rate... 13th February 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank raises rates to 4.25% The surprise decision by the Swedish Riksbank to raise interest rates from 4.0% to 4.25% today confirmed that it remains concerned about the outlook for inflation. And with its latest interest rate... 13th February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB starts to soften While the European Central Bank declined to follow the Fed and Bank of England in cutting interest rates today, tentative signs of a softening in its previously stubbornly hawkish stance support our... 7th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Cautious loosening points to deeper downturn Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to cut interest rates by just 25 bps would seem to confirm that lingering inflation concerns will restrict policy loosening to a gradual pace over the... 7th February 2008 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to tread carefully Recent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) communications have just about made a rate cut on Thursday a done deal. The recent equity market turmoil has raised the question of whether the MPC should follow... 31st January 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Interest rates heading for 3.0%, eventually The ECB is likely to maintain a hawkish stance at February’s Governing Council meeting and press conference, denting hopes that it might cut interest rates within a couple of months. But with the... 31st January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish interest rate expectations have fallen too far The Swedish economy has slowed in recent months, but with inflationary pressures still alive and kicking we expect the Riksbank’s response to be less aggressive than markets anticipate. Indeed, we... 30th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update King's re-appointment slightly hawkish, but safe Mervyn King’s re-appointment as Governor of the Bank of England for another five years is possibly a slightly hawkish development for the outlook for interest rates. Nonetheless, it will be seen as... 30th January 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish interest rate expectations have fallen too far The Swedish economy has slowed in recent months, but with inflationary pressures still alive and kicking we expect the Riksbank’s response to be less aggressive than markets anticipate. Indeed, we... 30th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB to cut rates to 3.0% We argued back in December that expectations that the ECB would raise interest rates this year would prove to be wrong. With economic activity in the region continuing to cool and other central banks... 23rd January 2008 · 1 min read
