Japan Economics Focus Bank of Japan makes the case for the next rate hike This Focus assesses the implications of the Bank of Japan’s twice-yearly growth and inflation forecasts, published today in its “Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices”. In our view these provide... 31st October 2006 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Tankan supports case for another hike in Japanese interest rates Today’s strong Tankan survey of business conditions paves the way for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates again shortly. Although most analysis starts and finishes with the headline index... 2nd October 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How hard will higher interest rates hit Ireland? The Irish economy looks likely to be one of the heaviest sufferers from the upward trend in eurozone interest rates. As such, the consensus view that Irish economic growth will barely slow over the... 18th September 2006 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB continues to remove monetary stimulus It came as no surprise at all that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) today raised rates by a further 25bps (bringing the mid-point of its target range for the three month Libor to 1.75%). After all, the... 14th September 2006 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is the Japanese consumer flagging? Recent monthly indicators from the consumer sector have been surprisingly weak. This contrasts with the strength of household spending in the GDP data over the last year or so, and raises concerns... 30th August 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Euro’s strength won’t curb the ECB The recent appreciation of the euro exchange rate has led to suggestions that the European Central Bank can afford to take its finger off the interest rate trigger. After all, conventional indicators... 13th July 2006 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Tankan survey paves the way for rise in Japanese interest rates Today’s strong Tankan survey of business confidence in the second quarter paves the way for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates, most likely at its next meeting on July 14th. Although most... 3rd July 2006 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB well on the road to ‘normalisation' Today’s decision by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to raise the target mid-point for the 3 month Libor by 25bps to 1.5% came as very little surprise. Like the latest rise in ECB rates, today’s hike... 15th June 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Sterling’s rise eases pressure to raise rates The MPC’s latest forecasts suggested that interest rates would need to rise for the 2% inflation target to be hit. But these forecasts did not count on the recent rise in the sterling exchange rate... 30th May 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus When can the MPC relax on inflation? A key factor preventing the Monetary Policy Committee from cutting interest rates further has been the threat that last year’s rise in CPI inflation will have knock-on effects on inflation... 30th January 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Where will euro-zone rates peak? ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said little new in his testimony to the European parliament today. But whether the ECB begins to raise rates in December (as now seems likely) or early in 2006, there... 21st November 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the ECB keeping government bond yield spreads low? A number of commentators have argued that the ECB is inadvertently keeping euro-zone government bond yield spreads artificially low because of the way it provides liquidity to the banking system. In... 19th October 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the switch to CPI blocking rate cuts? The switch to the consumer prices index as the targeted measure of inflation in 2003 may be having unintended and unfavourable effects on the UK economy by keeping interest rates higher than they... 22nd September 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Should Italy leave EMU? The fact that Italy’s economic under-performance is linked to the weakness of its external sector prompts the question of whether Italy should leave EMU to allow its currency to depreciate and regain... 20th September 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Making the most of lower interest rates The disparity between the markets’ current interest expectations for official UK interest rates and our forecast that they will fall to 3.5% next year suggests that there are opportunities for both... 6th September 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The New Mavericks The last six months or so have seen a significant increase in disagreement amongst members of the Monetary Policy Committee. This trend culminated in the August meeting at which, for the first time... 23rd August 2005 · 1 min read
