UK Economics Focus Lower interest rates may not kick-start spending Relief is finally on its way for UK consumers in the form of lower interest rates. But there are a number of reasons why rate cuts might prove less powerful than in the past, meaning that those hoping... 4th August 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Lower interest rates may not kick-start spending Relief is finally on its way for UK consumers in the form of lower interest rates. But there are a number of reasons why rate cuts might prove less powerful than in the past, meaning that those hoping... 4th August 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the ECB cut rates? The case for a cut in euro-zone interest rates is straightforward: the economic recovery has lost momentum and monetary policy is one of the few remaining levers available to stimulate growth. Indeed... 26th May 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus MPC may be too sanguine on link between housing & spending The Monetary Policy Committee has soothed concerns over the recent slowdown in the housing market by pointing out that the link between house prices and household spending has loosened markedly in... 14th February 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus MPC may be too sanguine on link between housing & spending The Monetary Policy Committee has soothed concerns over the recent slowdown in the housing market by pointing out that the link between house prices and household spending has loosened markedly in... 14th February 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Average earnings growth no barrier to lower interest rates Average earnings growth has recently started to edge dangerously close to the 4.5% threshold which the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has previously stated is the maximum consistent with meeting its... 12th January 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the ECB intervene to restrain the euro? The ECB has already started to express concern about the rising euro. This has led to increased speculation about when the ECB might intervene to resist further strengthening. However, we believe that... 10th November 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Getting a better measure of market rate expectations The most frequently used method of estimating the markets’ expectations for the official interest rate is to derive an implied path from short sterling futures contracts. On the face of it, these... 17th August 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Time to start thinking about lower interest rates? With UK interest rates still firmly in the up-phase of the cycle, markets and commentators alike have continued to focus on exactly how far rates are likely to rise. So far, they appear to have given... 9th August 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus No room for mavericks in Mervyn’s Kingdom? The last year or so has seen an unprecedented degree of unity in the voting behaviour of members of the Monetary Policy Committee. Only once in the last 12 months has the size of the majority slipped... 29th July 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Monetary Policy at the Crossroads (Q3 04) The general perception among economists and the markets alike is that the UK’s inflation targeting monetary policy regime is the model that all other countries should follow. But is the current regime... 27th June 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Time for monetary shock treatment? The failure of the increases in official UK interest rates seen in recent months to have any visible impact on the housing market or the rapid growth of household spending and borrowing suggests that... 22nd June 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus MPC’s faith in surveys may prove misplaced The Monetary Policy Committee’s prediction of a very solid 3.5% expansion in GDP this year is based on the assumption that the official output data will soon reflect the buoyancy of the business... 18th May 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Neutral interest rates could be lower than you think Predictions from some forecasters that interest rates are set to rise to 5% or above in the current cycle are based at least in part on the assumption that the Monetary Policy Committee will want to... 9th November 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The HICP and interest rates (re-visited) Conventional wisdom has had it that the impending switch in the targeted measure of UK inflation from RPIX to the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) will have either a neutral or downward... 30th September 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Lower pound should not prevent future rate cuts Today’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged presumably reflected a belief amongst MPC members that the drop in the exchange rate will do their job for them. This view is supported by some model... 8th May 2003 · 1 min read
