UK Economics Focus MPC may be too sanguine about housing again With the housing market clearly slowing, the key issue is the potential impact of this on the economy and, in particular, consumer spending. During 2005’s housing slowdown, the Monetary Policy... 12th November 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank strikes a more dovish tone Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to keep interest rates on hold and to lower its projection for the future path of rates could lead to a renewed weakening of the krone following the strengthening... 31st October 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus MPC may need to let high street spending slump The outlook for consumer price inflation hangs crucially on the strength of activity in the high street. If retail spending continues to grow at recent solid rates, retailers will pass on previous... 25th October 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further cut in Hungary looks likely (Oct 07) The future direction of interest rate movements across Central Europe remains clear cut - rates need to rise in Poland and the Czech Republic and fall in Hungary. But pinning down the likely timing of... 17th October 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank continues tightening cycle Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to raise interest rates for a second time since the turmoil in the financial markets is another demonstration that central banks are likely to remain focused on the... 26th September 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary cut looks on the cards (Sep 07) The focus this month will be on Hungary, where we think that interest rates are likely to be cut by 25bps, subject to ongoing developments in the currency markets. We expect policy makers elsewhere in... 18th September 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB hikes, but outlook blurred by market turmoil The Swiss National Bank (SNB)’s decision to hike rates adds to the evidence that the recent market turmoil does not preclude further policy tightening from central banks, especially when rates are... 13th September 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Strong Swiss growth supports case for September hike The further strong gain in Swiss GDP in Q2 suggests that capacity pressures are continuing to build. This could keep the SNB in tightening mode, despite recent financial market turbulence and still... 4th September 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank signals business as usual Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to press ahead with the previously indicated rise in its key interest rate from 4.5% to 4.75% supports our view that central banks are unlikely to be deflected from... 15th August 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary to cut as inflation outlook improves (Aug 07) The focus this month will be on Hungary, where an updated inflation report should pave the way for a 25bps cut in interest rates. We expect rates to remain on hold elsewhere in the region. 14th August 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What will 6% interest rates do to the economy? The Monetary Policy Committee has made it clear that it is prepared to do whatever is necessary to protect the UK’s low inflation environment. But the costs of doing so might be rather higher than the... 14th August 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What will 6% interest rates do to the economy? The Monetary Policy Committee has made it clear that it is prepared to do whatever is necessary to protect the UK’s low inflation environment. But the costs of doing so might be rather higher than the... 14th August 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Rep to hike as labour market tightens (Jul 07) The focus this month will be on the Czech Republic, where both we and the markets are predicting a 25bps rise in interest rates to 3%. Elsewhere, interest rates are likely to remain on hold in Hungary... 17th July 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak labour data to signal cuts in Hungary (Jun 07) The focus this month will be on Hungary, where a moderation in wage growth towards 6% should be enough to persuade the Monetary Council to cut interest rates by 25bps to 7.75%. Interest rates are... 6th July 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Hawkish SNB points to further rate hikes to come Today’s decision by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to raise the target mid-point for 3 month interbank interest rates (Libor) by 25bps to 2.5% came as no surprise – indeed, the 3 month Libor itself had... 14th June 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank will raise rates aggressively in H2 Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to hike Norwegian interest rates by 25bps to 4.25% leaves rates comfortably in line with the Bank’s own forecast published in March’s Monetary Policy Report... 30th May 2007 · 1 min read
