UK Economics Update Letter threat an unhelpful distraction for the MPC The threat of having to write a letter to the Chancellor explaining why inflation has moved more than 1% above its target could cause the MPC to focus on the near-term outlook for inflation just when... 26th March 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank signals the possibility of a further rate rise The Norges Bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold but signal that it expects to raise interest rates once more this year is likely to lead to a further strengthening of the krone. 13th March 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB highlights weaker growth prospects After leaving interest rates on hold as expected (at a mid-point of 2.75%) the Swiss National Bank stressed that it expects economic activity to slow sharply this year. While strong price pressures... 13th March 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB highlights weaker growth prospects After leaving interest rates on hold as expected (at a mid-point of 2.75%) the Swiss National Bank stressed that it expects economic activity to slow sharply this year. While strong price pressures... 13th March 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank signals the possibility of a further rate rise The Norges Bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold but signal that it expects to raise interest rates once more this year is likely to lead to a further strengthening of the krone. 13th March 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB to tackle strong euro by cutting rates, not intervening Jean-Claude Trichet’s expressions of concern over the strength of the euro yesterday have prompted speculation that the ECB might intervene directly in the currency markets to prevent the currency... 11th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update US recession underlines downside risks to BoE/ECB rates Recent news on the US economy, most notably February’s sharp drop in non-farm payrolls, has left us even more pessimistic over the outlook for the US. We now forecast GDP growth of just 0.5% in 2008... 10th March 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update US recession underlines downside risks to BoE/ECB rates Recent news on the US economy, most notably February’s sharp drop in non-farm payrolls, has left us even more pessimistic over the outlook for the US. We now forecast GDP growth of just 0.5% in 2008... 10th March 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Does it matter who governs the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan left rates on hold today, as universally expected. The real interest lies in the dispute over the replacement for Governor Fukui, who retires later this month. We think that the... 7th March 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB resists the pressure, for now The European Central Bank today poured cold water on suggestions that it might cut interest rates as soon as next month. But with the economy clearly slowing and the euro hitting new record highs, it... 6th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC hamstrung by inflation worries Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to leave interest rates unchanged supports the view that it will continue to loosen policy at a cautious pace while inflation concerns persist. But... 6th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC hamstrung by inflation worries Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to leave interest rates unchanged supports the view that it will continue to loosen policy at a cautious pace while inflation concerns persist. But... 6th March 2008 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Bank of Canada takes the initiative Signs that the downturn in the US is now having a marked impact on Canada prompted the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates by a bigger 50 basis points today, to 3.5%. (See Chart.) Moreover, the... 4th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rising LIBOR means that the MPC will have to work harder The recent renewed rise in interbank lending rates is an unwelcome development which means that the MPC will have to work harder to support economic activity. This supports our view that interest... 4th March 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Cracks in ECB's hawkish stance to widen We suspect that suggestions that the ECB will signal an imminent cut in interest rates at March’s Governing Council meeting will be disappointed. Nonetheless, with the new staff economic forecasts... 28th February 2008 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC willing to tolerate a sharp slowdown The recent economic news has deepened the dilemma facing the Monetary Policy Committee posed by slowing activity on the one hand and strengthening price pressures on the other. But recent speeches by... 28th February 2008 · 1 min read
