Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rate hike unlikely to trigger sustained tightening cycle With underlying inflation pressures still relatively subdued over the key 12-18 month policy horizon, today’s hike in Polish interest rates is unlikely to be the start of a particularly aggressive... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed won't call an early halt to QE2 We don't anticipate that the stronger tone of the incoming economic data will prompt the Fed to curtail its plan to buy $600bn of Treasury securities by June at the next FOMC meeting, which concludes... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still sitting on fence The policy statement from the Bank of Canada this morning is unequivocally dovish, no doubt a bit of a disappointment to market analysts, who had expected a more hawkish tone. Indeed, despite more... 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The Fed's QE2 programme of Treasury purchases is yet to have any impact on the broader monetary aggregates, let alone price inflation. The annual growth rate of our Capital Economics' measure of M3... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The Fed's QE2 programme of Treasury purchases is yet to have any impact on the broader monetary aggregates, let alone price inflation. The annual growth rate of our Capital Economics' measure of M3... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly India set to lift rates again later this month India data released last week showed industrial production growth slowed sharply in late 2010 while the annual gain in wholesale prices picked up. The Reserve Bank (RBI) will respond to the latter by... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB boxes with shadows In adopting a more hawkish tone last week, when core euro-zone inflation is running at just 1.1%, the ECB has increased doubts over its ability to grasp the seriousness of the situation facing the... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How far will interest rates rise in Poland? After remaining on hold for the past 18 months, it seems all but certain that Polish interest rates will be hiked later this month. But we doubt that this will mark the start of an aggressive... 14th January 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Reserve requirements set to become primary policy tool The People’s Bank is shifting towards using reserve requirements as a primary tool to limit credit growth. This is another reason to believe that interest rates will not rise as far as many expect in... 14th January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean rates on hold, but further hikes are likely Last night, the Central Bank of Chile (CBC) held interest rates at 3.25% but highlighted the need for further monetary tightening. Accordingly, we are sticking to our below-consensus forecast for... 14th January 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Rising financial risks spell trouble The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold the key policy interest rate at 1% on Tuesday. More importantly, we expect it to hold the policy rate at 1% throughout this year. This is in contrast to... 14th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB remains reluctant to do more After leaving interest rates on hold, the ECB provided no indication that it is about to respond to the ongoing euro-zone fiscal crisis by adopting bolder unconventional policy measures. 13th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC not panicking yet The Monetary Policy Committee is coming under fire for leaving policy unchanged – as it did again today – in the face of rising near-term price pressures. But we doubt that the Committee has much to... 13th January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The Bank of Korea still has more work to do The Bank of Korea (BoK) lifted its policy rate by 25bp to 2.75% today, which was in line with our forecast but surprised the consensus. Policymakers have rightly become more focused on inflation and... 13th January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to continue tightening The Bank of Thailand (BoT) raised its policy rate by 25bp to 2.25% today, as expected. Growth is likely to pick up during the course of this year, and will be led by strengthening domestic demand and... 12th January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka goes for growth The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) unexpectedly cut its two policy rates at today’s meeting. Inflation accelerated at the end of last year while the economic upswing is set to stay strong... 11th January 2011 · 1 min read
