Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia meanders to the exit Bank Indonesia (BI) left its policy rate at 6.5% today, as expected, and gave no indication that it is thinking about raising rates soon. We believe that the risks to inflation from keeping policy... 3rd December 2009 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC mulls alternatives to more QE With the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) likely to wait for February’s Inflation Report before reviewing its asset purchase programme, this week’s meeting should be a non-event. In any case, the... 3rd December 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand in no rush to hike The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy interest rate unchanged at 1.25% today, as expected. The economy is recovering but at a far slower pace than the rest of Asia. Thailand is also more reliant... 2nd December 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia likely to pause its tightening cycle The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate to 3.75% today, as expected. The accompanying policy statement shows that the RBA considers it has already made a “material adjustment” to... 1st December 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan’s gesture fails to impress The markets are right to be underwhelmed by the Bank of Japan’s announcement of a fresh injection of liquidity. An even longer period of ultra-loose monetary policy will maintain the downward pressure... 1st December 2009 · 1 min read
US Economics Update End of Fed MBS purchases unlikely to derail housing recovery 30th November 2009 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Treading carefully The ECB will probably confirm at the forthcoming press conference that December’s provision of 12- month bank loans will be the last. Together with possible hints about phasing out 6-month lending... 26th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam makes the right moves The change came a little earlier than we had expected, but today’s devaluation and policy rate hike in Vietnam was no surprise. The currency will probably fall further over the next 12 months even... 25th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan is probably finished cutting rates Today’s 50bps policy rate cut by the State Bank of Pakistan was expected but, we believe, is likely to be the last cut in the current cycle. Politics is clearly a wildcard but the economy has... 24th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia rates to stay low Bank Negara, as expected, today kept policy rates unchanged and again indicated that it will keep rates on hold for a prolonged period. The economy is picking up but the upswing is more fragile than... 24th November 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Easing-cycle may be over, but hikes are not imminent (Nov 09) After an aggressive easing of monetary policy over the past year, we now think that interest rates have troughed in Poland, Turkey and the Czech Republic. However policymakers in all three will retain... 20th November 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Thoughts turn to monetary tightening The recession in Latin America has, for the most part, ended and the pace of recovery is likely to remain strong over the next six to nine months. We have revised up our GDP growth forecasts for 2010... 19th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Markets too aggressive on Korean rate hikes to come The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate at 2.00% today. We believe the economic upswing is well established and that the political pressures on the BoK to hold rates low will probably ease early... 12th November 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB edging towards the exit The latest comments from the ECB suggest that it is edging slowly towards the policy stimulus exit. But the outstanding stock of central bank loans to ommercial banks will remain very high for some... 5th November 2009 · 1 min read
