Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to stay in the slow lane The Bank of Thailand left policy interest rates on hold at 1.25% today, as was widely expected. Although the economic recovery is gaining some traction, there is little risk that inflation will... 21st October 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets still premature in pricing in rate hikes (Oct 09) Although monetary easing-cycles in much of the region are drawing to a close, we still do not expect rates to be hiked anywhere before the second half of 2010. Turkey is likely to be the first to... 16th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean rates set to stay low The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate unchanged today, as expected. Mortgage lending curbs are tackling property bubble concerns and core inflation will likely trend lower. Korea’s GDP recovery... 9th October 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB still some way from the exit The ECB’s cautious tone in the press conference following its decision to leave interest rates on hold for the sixth consecutive month supports our view that any future tightening of policy conditions... 8th October 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC just waiting for November’s meeting The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has made it clear that it wants to wait until November before re-assessing its programme of asset purchases, so today’s no-change decision was of little surprise... 8th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian rate-tightening cycle will be modest The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate to 3.25% today, sooner than most had expected. Markets are now pricing in further rate rises back up to a “neutral” level of 5.0-5.5% by late... 6th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia holds rates but probably not for much longer Bank Indonesia (BI) left its overnight lending rate at 6.5% today, as expected, and retained its neutral bias. But inflation looks set to rise sharply over the next few months and we believe that the... 5th October 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Bubble, bubble toil and trouble? Concerns that super-loose monetary policy in the West will fuel a bubble in emerging market assets are beginning to mount. While we believe that capital flows to Latin America will ease over the... 2nd October 2009 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to wait for Inflation Report before doing more The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has made it fairly clear that it will wait until November before deciding whether to extend its quantitative easing (QE) programme again. This will coincide with... 1st October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update First Philippine rate rise likely in Q2 2010 Today the Philippines’ central bank, as expected, left its policy rate unchanged at 4% and retained a neutral bias. The economic impact of Tropical Storm Ketsana should be small and the GDP upswing is... 1st October 2009 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Maintaining a supportive stance The ECB will leave interest rates at 1.0% at its October policy meeting and is unlikely to signal any significant change in its supportive policy stance for the future. The Bank will probably argue... 1st October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Deflation threat to keep Taiwan rates on prolonged hold With deflation still a lingering threat, interest rates will probably remain at their current low level in Taiwan until well after they start to climb elsewhere in the region. 24th September 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank becoming more hawkish With Norway now on the path to recovery, the Norges Bank has begun to prepare the ground for future interest rate hikes. But while the Bank will probably tighten later this year, we do not expect... 23rd September 2009 · 1 min read
