Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The acceleration in the monetary base is not feeding through to broader money growth as demand for credit, particularly from businesses, is weakening. 14th August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Emerging Asia set for weak recovery despite policy easing Asia’s strong rebound from the 2008-09 global financial crisis took many by surprise. Despite the policy easing now underway in Asia, the region’s recovery from the current global crisis is unlikely... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: don’t bank on a rapid rebound The rapid turnaround in fortunes for Brazil’s economy has provoked much head-scratching from policymakers and investors alike. We think the key point is that the slowdown in growth owes as much to... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan’s central bank in a difficult balancing act The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cut its discount rate by 150bp to 10.5% today. Monetary policy is likely to be loosened further in an effort to revive growth, even at the risk of stoking already-high... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly No gold medal for the economy The Olympic mood was abruptly punctured by Mervyn King as he presented the Bank of England’s Inflation Report last week. Although the lower near-term profile for inflation was good news, this was... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian bank turns hawkish despite slowdown in growth The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q2, though modest, is likely to be a sign of things to come. Accordingly, speculation that the Central Bank may soon hike interest rates seems premature. 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.) Egyptian inflation fell to a six-year low in July as price pressures in virtually all the components of the consumer price basket eased. 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Can the bond rally last? Emerging European bonds have rallied over the past couple of months. In the case of Hungary and Turkey we are doubtful that it can be sustained, but in the Czech Republic and Poland, it may have... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea not done cutting rates The Bank of Korea (BoK) held its policy rate at 3.0% today. Nonetheless, we believe that global growth will continue to disappoint and that more policy stimulus will be needed soon to support Korea’s... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Economic rebound remains elusive China’s stimulus efforts are feeding a pick-up in infrastructure investment but recovery has not so far spread to the rest of the economy. 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update The economy is not “picking up moderately” The Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged at its August meeting, as was widely expected. However, it continues to state that the economy is “picking up moderately” despite the growing body of... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What more can central banks do? Many commentators argue that central banks in advanced economies have all but run out of ammunition. We disagree. Admittedly, the room for further conventional policy stimulus is fairly limited, but... 8th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Aug.) The Bank of England’s latest Inflation Report contained substantial downward revisions to the growth and inflation forecasts, supporting our view that more policy stimulus is likely once the current... 8th August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia pauses, but one more rate cut is on the way The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its policy rate at 3.5% today. It probably won't be long until the RBA cuts again, but it is nearing the end of its loosening cycle. 7th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed will do more, but QE3 is not the best option We now think that the Fed will provide more policy stimulus when the FOMC next meets in September. The most likely scenario is a third round of asset purchases (QE3), this time focusing on mortgage... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic growth continues to ease The anaemic rate of Canadian economic growth is becoming a major concern, particularly when the chances are that growth will only slow further in the second half of this year. Before the end of this... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
