Latin America Economics Update Latin America's impossible trinity The so-called ‘impossible trinity’ suggests that the only way that governments in Latin America can resist further currency appreciation is to either impose strict capital controls or align monetary... 3rd November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia's monetary tightening has a long way to go The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly hiked its cash rate by 25bp to 4.75% today. While the exact timing was a surprise, the resumption of monetary tightening was only a matter of when, not... 2nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Ready to respond? (Nov 10) The rescheduling of the Bank of Japan’s next Policy Board meeting to Thursday and Friday this week was surely designed to provide an early opportunity to assess any market fall-out from the US Fed’s... 2nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's tightening cycle is just about finished The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), as expected, today lifted both the repo rate and reverse repo rate by 25bp. However, inflation will probably slow soon and the RBI is increasingly concerned about high... 2nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: 'Currency war' has only just begun A raft of measures announced by the Colombian authorities late last week are unlikely to have much impact on the value of the peso. In the absence of a drop in commodity prices, capital inflows are... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly India's tightening cycle looks nearly over The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will probably lift its two policy rates by another 25bp this week. Inflation remains too high while the economic upswing, although losing some momentum, is likely to... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan keeps its options open The Bank of Japan’s decision to bring forward its November Policy Board meeting to the day after Wednesday’s FOMC raises the intriguing possibility that the Bank intends to respond to any additional... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed ready to roll the dice again With Republicans set to make significant gains in this week's mid-term elections, our suspicion is that fiscal policy will end up being largely paralysed for the next two years. The Fed should... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will QE continue to undermine the dollar? The conventional view that further quantitative easing (QE) is unambiguously negative for the dollar will be tested next week both by the outcome of the Fed meeting and by the decisions of other major... 29th October 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is the Bank of Japan preparing to match the Fed's QE? The Bank of Japan’s decision to bring forward its November Policy Board meeting to the day after next Wednesday’s FOMC raises the intriguing possibility that the Bank intends to respond to any... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Not quite ready to do more QE yet The multitude of comments by Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members over the past month have suggested that most are still very open to the idea of re-starting quantitative easing (QE). While the... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand still on track to lift rates in early 2011 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), to no-one’s surprise, today kept policy rates unchanged at 3.0%. In coming months, we expect that the activity data will surprise on the upside while the RBNZ... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB's tightening bias should not last long Recent comments from ECB members, together with a reduction in its bank lending and halt to bond purchases, suggest that the Bank has maintained a tightening bias. It will probably keep open the... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish policymakers not yet ready to raise rates Today’s decision to keep Polish interest rates unchanged and raise reserve requirements instead reflects an attempt to tighten monetary conditions without attracting an influx of foreign capital... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch QE2 unlikely to have a major economic impact (Oct 10) At this stage, it would be a fairly big shock if the Fed did not announce a new programme of asset purchases at next week's two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes on Wednesday (3rd November). Chairman... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank hikes rates and signals more to come Despite the krona’s recent strength, the Swedish Riksbank raised interest rates for the third time in four months. Although further hikes are inevitable, we expect the pace of tightening to ease... 26th October 2010 · 1 min read
