ECB Watch Phasing out support despite peripheral crisis The ECB faces the difficult task this month of weighing up the periphery’s disastrous situation on the one hand and pretty strong growth in the core euro-zone economies on the other. With the region’s... 25th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish policymakers in 'wait and see' mode The turmoil in the euro-zone’s periphery probably tipped the balance in favour of keeping Polish interest rates unchanged this afternoon and thus delaying a first hike until next month or (more likely... 23rd November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian cabinet beginning to take shape It has been rumoured in the Brazilian press that Henrique Meirelles will step down as Governor of the central bank (BCB) next year, but that Finance Minister, Guido Mantega, will retain his post under... 23rd November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Our Capital Economics' measure of M3 is falling year-on-year, albeit at a slower rate. The M2 aggregate is growing at an unusually slow pace, and credit is contracting. Over the past 12 months, the 3... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The Philippines' tightening cycle to begin soon The Philippines’ central bank (BSP) kept its key policy rate unchanged at 4.0% today, as expected. The strong peso is doing some of the heavy-lifting for the BSP, but rates will probably need to move... 18th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Slowdown looming for Taiwan The Philippines’ central bank (BSP) kept its key policy rate unchanged at 4.0% today, as expected. The strong peso is doing some of the heavy-lifting for the BSP, but rates will probably need to move... 18th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rate hikes to remain gradual in Chile The Central Bank of Chile (CBC) hiked interest rates by 25bps to 3.0% last night. The strength of the peso means that rate hikes are likely to remain gradual over the coming months. Accordingly... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK MPC Minutes & Labour Market Data (Oct./Nov.) The minutes of November’s MPC meeting and the latest labour market figures tell us little new about the monetary policy debate. The MPC remains in wait and see mode until clearer signals on the... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC split down the middle The acceleration in headline inflation seen across Emerging Europe in recent months has been driven predominantly by a rise in food prices. This follows droughts in Russia and widespread flooding... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Would price controls work? Price controls may appeal to officials eager to be seen to be doing something about rising inflation, but China’s experience with controls has not been encouraging. For markets, they could play either... 16th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More Bank of Korea rate hikes on the way The Bank of Korea (BoK) hiked its policy rate by 25bp to 2.5% today, in a move we had expected but which surprised the Bloomberg consensus. The economy should regain momentum over the next 12 months... 16th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka set to tighten monetary policy in 2011 The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) kept its policy rates on hold at today’s meeting, as expected. Inflation has accelerated but is unlikely to reach a problem-pace any time soon. However, GDP growth... 16th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the Fed's QE2 already high and dry? The fact that Treasury yields have risen rather than fallen since the Fed announced the launch of QE2 is not necessarily evidence that the policy is failing, especially when the US central bank has... 15th November 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update US QE2 no boon for Canada The Fed's new programme of asset purchases (QE2) does not change our view that Canada faces an extended period of weak economic performance. We continue to expect GDP growth to stagger along at around... 15th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's upswing set to stay strong Industrial output growth slowed sharply in September while the annual gain in wholesale prices eased a little in October. The Reserve Bank (RBI) has already made it clear that policy rates will almost... 15th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed criticism over the top but not all unfounded The Fed's quantitative easing may be unconventional, but it is designed to work through the same channels as conventional changes in short-term interest rates; by lowering long-term interest rates... 15th November 2010 · 1 min read
