Asia Economics Update Bank Negara will probably tighten soon Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left the overnight rate unchanged today at 2.75%, as expected. Nevertheless, few will now have any doubts about the durability of the economic upswing while even the BNM... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand's Reserve Bank continues to wait and see The decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to leave the cash rate at 3.0% for the fourth consecutive meeting was universally expected. We anticipate that the upswing will gain more... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed biding its time The tone of the Fed's latest policy statement suggests that neither the most recent pick up in economic growth nor the continued surge in commodity prices have had much of an impact on officials... 26th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jan.) Yesterday’s disappointing GDP figures re-ignited concerns about a return to so-called “stagflation” – the toxic combination of high inflation and high unemployment/weak economic growth that plagued... 26th January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's Reserve Bank still has more work to do The central bank in India (RBI) today hiked the repo rate by 25bp to 6.5%, as was expected. In addition, the RBI adopted an unequivocally hawkish stance. High inflation, particularly when led by food... 25th January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan has more work to do There were no surprises from the Bank of Japan meeting that ended today and policy was unchanged. Nonetheless, we continue to expect further easing later this year to undermine the yen as the global... 25th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Turkish monetary policy really a recipe for disaster? The Central Bank of Turkey’s policy of cutting interest rates to deter speculative capital inflows despite the economy’s comparatively good growth prospects is not necessarily the recipe for disaster... 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary hikes again, but all eyes back on fiscal policy The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) this afternoon voted to hike interest rates by 25bps for the third consecutive month (to 6.00%). The outlook remains highly uncertain, but on balance today’s move... 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rising inflation to be met with unorthodox measures With the notable exception of Mexico, containing inflation remains the immediate challenge for policymakers in Latin America. Although the pick-up in inflation looks set to be driven by food and... 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Forecasts looking too rosy The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board is unlikely to announce any major policy initiatives at the two-day meeting which concludes tomorrow. 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank Negara to stay on hold, but it is a close call Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) meets on Thursday and will probably keep the overnight policy rate unchanged at 2.75%. The economic recovery has inevitably lost some momentum as exports have been hit by... 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sterling threat will help to keep rates low Much of the pound’s recent strength appears to have reflected the rise in inflation in the UK and the growing expectation that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will soon be forced to raise official... 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rate hikes remain a distant prospect in Mexico As expected, the Central Bank of Mexico (BANXICO) held interest rates at 4.5% this afternoon. Speculation is mounting that rising food prices could trigger a rate hike over the coming months but the... 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Picking apart the mixed messages on rates The past month has produced conflicting signals about the future path of monetary policy in the region. While policymakers in Hungary and Poland have begun the year by hiking interest rates, their... 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey still focussed on cutting the carry Despite today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) to cut interest rates, increases in bank reserve requirements that are likely to be announced over the next couple of days mean that... 20th January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tombini starts with a hike, attention now turns to fiscal policy Last night, the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) hiked interest rates by 50bps to 11.25%. Rates will probably be increased by another 50bps at March’s meeting too. But if rumours of a fiscal tightening... 20th January 2011 · 1 min read
