Asia Economics Update New Zealand still on track for mid-year hike The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) as expected left its cash rate unchanged at 2.5% overnight and, crucially, retained its commitment to start lifting rates from around the middle of 2010. The... 11th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is there a limit to how much QE the MPC can do? Concerns that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is nearing the limit of how much quantitative easing (QE) it can undertake are probably overdone. Nonetheless, the potential for QE to spark an asset... 10th March 2010 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Token “easing” could now disappoint markets The Bank of Japan is now widely expected to announce some additional monetary stimulus at its next Policy Board meeting (which concludes on Wednesday 17th). However, we suspect this will simply be an... 10th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand moves closer to the exit The Thai policy rate was left unchanged at 1.25% today, as expected. The Bank of Thailand (BoT) acknowledged that the economic momentum built up at the end of last year has carried forward into 2010... 10th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are zero interest rates possible in the UK? We think that cutting Bank Rate all the way to zero remains a potential tool in the Monetary Policy Committee’s arsenal. None of the obstacles to lower rates put forward by the MPC seem insurmountable... 8th March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB winds down unconventional support The ECB is withdrawing its unconventional policy support a bit more quickly than had been expected. But its gloomy take on the economic outlook and the prospect of aggressive fiscal tightening in... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC holds fire again but further action still likely The MPC remains in wait and see mode while it assesses the economic outlook and the impact of its previous policy measures. But with the recovery sluggish, inflation worries set to ease and a major... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus QE a year on Without the Bank of Englands programme of quantitative easing (QE) launched a year ago, the economy would probably still be in recession. However, the policy has clearly not worked well enough to kick... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia set for a mild monetary tightening Bank Negara (BNM) raised the overnight policy rate by 25bps to 2.25% at today’s meeting. This was contrary to the consensus expectation but in line with our forecast. Economic growth has recently... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesian politics is back in the way Bank Indonesia (BI) left rates at 6.5% today, as expected. The major new development is that politics is high profile again and threatens to stall the new reforms Indonesia needs to lift its trend... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian policy rates set to rise again in May The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate to 4.00% today, as expected. GDP growth is returning to trend and could even be there already, while core inflation is above target. Policy... 2nd March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam’s change not as bad as first appears Today’s headlines that Vietnam is moving toward price controls do not mark a shift away from the free market policy adjustments needed to successfully tackle its inflation and balance of payments... 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Australia to resume monetary tightening It is a close call, but the Reserve Bank (RBA) is likely to hike rates again at its Tuesday meeting. The no change in early February was always a pause and not the end of monetary tightening... 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly More clear signals from the MPC Comments from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) dominated events last week, with the key message being that a further extension of quantitative easing (QE) could soon be on the cards. Of course, we... 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Another small step towards the exit The ECB will announce the next step in its plan to phase out unconventional policy support this month. This might well be to increase the interest rate on its three-month loans to commercial banks... 25th February 2010 · 1 min read
