Asia Economics Update Interest rates in Indonesia set for prolonged hold Indonesia’s central bank (BI) kept its reference rate at 5.75% today, as expected. With inflation relatively low and economic growth remaining strong, we expect BI to remain on hold for the remainder... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya cuts rates, pace of easing now set to slow The Central Bank of Kenya cut its benchmark interest rate by 200bps to 11.00% today but, while there is still room for further easing, rates are unlikely to continue falling so sharply over the next... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish easing cycle has much further to run Today’s decision by the National Bank of Poland to cut interest rates by 25bps to 4.50% suggests that policymakers are finally starting to acknowledge that the big threat to the economy comes from... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) China’s consumer price inflation was stable in October, we believe. Looking ahead, both inflation and economic activity look likely to pick up some pace in the next few months, weakening the case for... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian central bank set for a period on the sidelines The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its cash rate at 3.25% today. Unless global conditions take a sharp turn for the worse, we now expect the RBA to remain on hold for the next year or so. We... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
BoE Watch More QE ahead, whether this month or next year It will be a close decision at this week’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting. The latest business surveys suggest that the recovery is still struggling. But other economic data have been more positive... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Consensus too hawkish on Asia’s policy rate outlook All four central banks which announce their policy rate decisions this week are likely to signal that global worries are a key downside risk for local growth. Only in Australia do we expect a rate cut... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB adamant about conditions for bond buying The ECB seems set to remain on standby this month. With just the announcement of its Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme still buoying market sentiment, the Bank has yet to be called upon... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ugandan rate cutting cycle close to an end The Bank of Uganda lowered its benchmark interest rate by 50bps to 12.50% today and, looking ahead, we think there is scope for one further rate cut before the easing cycle concludes. 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Republic moves to the zero bound After today’s decision to cut interest rates all the way to the zero bound, we expect the Czech National Bank to move into the realms of unconventional monetary policy measures next year. 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Funding for Lending Scheme - a double-edged sword? September’s relatively positive borrowing numbers provided tentative evidence that the Bank of England’s Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) is reducing the cost and increasing the availability of credit... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s easing cycle running out of room Hungary continued to cut interest rates today, but financial vulnerabilities and a lack of progress towards an IMF deal mean that there is limited room for further easing. Accordingly, we don’t think... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Still no game changer from Bank of Japan The Bank of Japan’s further loosening of monetary policy today left markets underwhelmed. There is still no real sense that the Bank is getting ahead of the curve rather than playing catch up to... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India to continue resisting rate cut pressure The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its key policy rate unchanged today in the face of government pressure on it to cut. With inflation likely to remain high, we suspect the RBI will continue to... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Market too hawkish on most EM interest rates in 2013 We expect relatively weak economic growth to keep interest rates in most emerging markets lower than the market currently anticipates next year. The key exceptions are India, where we suspect that... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rate cuts in Colombia dependent upon global weakening The Colombian central bank (BANREP) appears to have signalled that further interest rates cuts are contingent upon a deterioration in the global environment. We think that a deepening of the euro-zone... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
