BoE Watch MPC leaves door open for more QE The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is unlikely to take any action this month. After all, it is still justifying why it did nothing last month! But the Committee has left the door firmly open to a... 25th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: NBH to continue with cautious cuts Some commentators think that this afternoon’s decision by the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) to cut interest rates by 25bps to 5.75% will mark the end of the current easing cycle. However, while the... 22nd February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia cuts rates again, but ruble strength could be short-lived This morning’s 25bps cut in Russian interest rates may help to stem some of the upward pressure on the ruble but it is unlikely to do much to spur lending. What’s more, if oil prices fall back this... 19th February 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Governor Shirakawa’s caution is not the last word The Bank of Japan meeting which concluded today was the non-event that most (ourselves included) had anticipated. Governor Shirakawa reiterated the Policy Board’s reluctance to adopt a more formal... 18th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policymakers to look through rise in inflation (Feb 10) Although inflation has risen across much of the region in recent months, policymakers remain in no rush to raise interest rates. For a start, the bulk of the pick-up in inflation has been caused by... 18th February 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil edges towards first rate hike All inflation targeting economies in the region rebounded strongly in the second half of 2009, and should continue to grow at a decent pace in the first half of this year. At the same time, a spike in... 17th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Feb.) & Labour Data (Dec./Jan.) The minutes of February’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting suggested that the pause in the Committee’s quantitative easing (QE) programme may be only temporary. If the recovery disappoints –... 17th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: new MPC but interest rates going nowhere for now As expected, the replacement of Poland’s entire Monetary Policy Council (MPC) which was completed today is unlikely to mark a fundamental shift in the Council’s bias. As a result, we are sticking to... 16th February 2010 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Caution to dominate, for now The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board meeting, which concludes on Thursday, is likely to be a non-event. There is still a compelling case for further monetary stimulus and today’s parliamentary testimonies... 16th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India will hike policy rates soon The surge in January wholesale prices, published today, means that it is a near-certainty that India will raise policy interest rates at the next monetary policy review in April. The chance of an... 15th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC not tightening policy yet It has been suggested that central banks are already effectively tightening policy by withdrawing the emergency liquidity provided to the financial system during the depths of the crisis. But in the... 15th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC retains faith in spare capacity to reduce inflation Last week’s Inflation Report was always likely to show a downward revision to the MPC’s growth forecasts and it duly delivered. But less certain was whether the recent rise in inflation would have... 15th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Markets too aggressive on Korea hikes to come The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate at 2.00% today, as expected. Political pressures to hold off monetary tightening have intensified and we now expect the first increase to be delayed until... 11th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Surveys point to significant amount of spare capacity In yesterday’s Inflation Report, the Bank of England highlighted the uncertainties surrounding the amount of spare capacity in the economy. Indeed, the recent stubbornness of UK inflation has led to... 11th February 2010 · 1 min read
