Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP pauses as Polish economy slows The National Bank of Poland left interest rates unchanged at 3.75% this lunchtime, as we expected. It was probably a close call and the market is still pricing in further significant hikes in the... 2nd March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can European policymakers rise to the challenge? Well over a year into the euro-zone debt crisis, policymakers still face enormous challenges if they are to prevent the region’s problems from continuing to escalate. On current evidence, it is far... 1st March 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada remains cautious The policy statement from the Bank of Canada this morning signalled that it is in no rush to raise interest rates, stressing as before that "any further reduction in monetary policy stimulus would... 1st March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The MPC’s preferred measure of broad money growth has continued to accelerate and is now getting pretty close to the rates the Committee has been aiming for. However, we doubt that this growth can be... 1st March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Australia's central bank still likely to hike this year The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is virtually certain to keep its cash rate on hold at 4.75% on Tuesday. Low inflation, sluggish household spending, and the uncertainty created by the recent... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Could we see a US rate hike this year? The markets will be watching for any signs of a shift in tone in Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's semi-annual testimony to Congress this week. Despite signs that the economic recovery is gathering momentum... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Who else might join the MPC's hawks? The MPC’s hawks now need the support of just two more members to push through an interest rate rise. Some members (such as Paul Tucker) look more likely to switch sides than others (such as Charlie... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia tightens once again Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to increase both bank reserve requirements and its key interest rates by 25bps is a further sign that rising inflation is moving up the government... 25th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The latest euro-zone money and credit data continue to suggest that underlying inflationary pressures remain subdued. But needless to say, the recent surge in the oil price, coupled with the fact that... 25th February 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Trapped in the impossible trinity Policymakers in Latin America face an awkward choice. Either they must fight inflation with stronger currencies but at the expense of a squeeze on domestic manufacturers, or they can limit currency... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch No interest rate hikes this year It is almost a foregone conclusion that the Bank of Canada will hold its key policy interest rate at 1% next week. More importantly, we think the Bank is unlikely to change its stance on monetary... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB's hawkish stance to harden The recent batch of reasonably upbeat economic data, coupled with further signs that price pressures may be building, will ensure that President Trichet continues to strike a hawkish tone at next week... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How would a rate rise affect confidence? In this morning’s MPC minutes, the Committee voiced some concern about how a rate rise might affect consumer confidence. The relationship between interest rates and consumer confidence has weakened... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Feb.) The hawkish tone of February’s UK MPC minutes suggests that the chances of a near-term interest rate rise are higher than previously thought. Indeed, we would now put the chances of a May hike at... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary rates on hold but doubts over fiscal plans persist The National Bank of Hungary kept rates unchanged at 6% earlier today, as expected, bringing to an end a short-lived tightening cycle that had spanned three months. Inflation is likely to slow over... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Near-term rate outlook still finely balanced We readily admit that we toyed last week with putting a near-term rate rise into our forecast. But, on balance, we are still not quite convinced that a rate rise is now more likely than not. 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
