Asia Economics Update Australia's policy tightening is not over, but will be slow The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 4.75% today, as expected. Its commentary was unusually dovish. Nevertheless, above-trend GDP growth still looks likely in 2011-12, which means... 7th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB actions speak louder than words, but for how long? Any disappointment that the ECB failed last week to commit to a major stepping up of its bond purchases was offset by reports that it had nonetheless bought large amounts of peripheral bonds. But it... 6th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly An early Christmas present for Mr. Osborne Christmas appeared to come early for the Chancellor last week. On Monday, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) published its revised economic forecasts, and, broadly speaking, endorsed the... 6th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Australia's policy tightening to pause, but not stop The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday and is likely to keep its cash rate unchanged at 4.75%. This is because recent data have been soft while mortgage rates have generally increased by... 6th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update A policy rate hike by Bank Indonesia looks close Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its reference rate unchanged today at 6.5%. The no-change outcome was not a surprise but we suspect that the decision was finely-balanced. Inflation is picking up fast while... 3rd December 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policy normalisation already well advanced Monetary conditions are not particularly loose in China and markets may be overestimating the degree of tightening to come. We expect several increases to the required reserve ratio over the next 12... 2nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB does the bare minimum Anyone hoping that the European Central Bank would respond to the euro-zone debt crisis with “shock and awe” today will have been severely disappointed. The fact that it failed to respond more... 2nd December 2010 · 1 min read
BoE Watch No change imminent Most members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) are continuing to sit firmly on the proverbial fence. But while a policy change does not look imminent, we still think that the faltering economic... 2nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank may regret rate increases If there was still any doubt that the Bank of Canada would leave its key policy rate at 1% next Tuesday, the news this week that third-quarter GDP increased by only 1.0% annualised should have... 2nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is Vietnam heading for another crisis in 2011? Yes is the answer to this question, unless policy-makers change course. A shift is needed towards targeting stability and lower inflation, rather than achieving high growth for its own sake. The good... 2nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the ECB ride to the rescue? Recent comments from ECB President Trichet have brought hope that the Bank might step up its bond purchases to support peripheral markets. But to make any real difference, the ECB would probably need... 1st December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand makes the right move The Bank of Thailand (BoT), in a surprise move earlier today, lifted its policy rate by 25bp to 2.0%. Domestic demand is well placed to lift GDP growth during the course of 2011, which means that... 1st December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan's central bank has probably tightened enough The central bank in Pakistan (SBP) today lifted its discount rate by 50bp to 14.0%, as we had expected. The annual gain in consumer prices should peak in coming months and inflation pressures from the... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian rate hike reflects political, not economic, concerns The outlook for inflation does not offer a particularly convincing justification for this afternoon’s surprise decision to raise Hungarian interest rates. Instead, we think the move is best viewed as... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currency concerns to temper rate hikes Strong capital inflows continue to create something of a headache for policymakers in Latin America. On the one hand, growth should remain strong over the coming quarters, while the inflation outlook... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) There is still little evidence of any pick-up in the growth rate of the broad money supply – supporting Mervyn King’s view that inflation will fall further ahead. Meanwhile, bank lending remains... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
