Asia Economics Update Fall in Indian inflation not enough to prompt further rate cuts Wholesale price inflation in India fell more than expected in January, to 6.6%. But with consumer price inflation rising to 10.8% and the current account deficit heading for a record high this year... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Slide back into recession bad news but old news The small contraction in Q4 and revisions to back data mean that Japanese GDP fell in each of the last three quarters of 2012. However, more timely monthly indicators and surveys already show that the... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s central bank likely to cut ahead The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate at 2.75% today, as was widely expected. Korea’s economic slowdown has bottomed out, but we think growth is unlikely to rebound strongly and that inflation... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan's central bank is in a bind While the State Bank of Pakistan may wish to cut rates further to stimulate the economy, there is a growing risk that the central bank will be forced into tightening policy instead. 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rate cuts still a possibility in Ghana The recent slowdown in both growth and inflation in Ghana suggest that rates cuts are a possibility this year, but concerns over currency weakness and twin deficits mean that significant easing is... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Monetary Indicators (Feb.) Recent data underline that, other than in the US, very loose monetary policy is still not translating into faster credit growth. 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Inflation Report highlights squeeze on real pay Today’s figures from the ONS highlight how employees’ real earnings have fallen to levels last seen in 2003. And the Bank of England’s February Inflation Report suggested that the squeeze on... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) It is mildly encouraging that consumption in January did not capitulate completely after the recent tax hikes. And while higher taxes and the latest leap in gasoline prices could yet hit sales harder... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update More rate cuts to come from the Swedish Riksbank The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold reflects concerns that further rate cuts may prompt household debt to rise further with potentially damaging longer-term consequences... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update More rate cuts to come from the Swedish Riksbank The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold reflects concerns that further rate cuts may prompt household debt to rise further with potentially damaging longer-term consequences... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bank of Japan to continue to lag well behind the Fed The recent slide in the yen against the dollar has mainly been driven by speculation that the Bank of Japan will soon start to loosen monetary policy much more aggressively. However, there is little... 12th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japanese consumers confident in “Abenomics” The jump in consumer confidence in January underlines just how big a task the Abe government has to meet the high expectations now spreading well beyond the financial markets. However, the improvement... 12th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Buoyant domestic demand to support regional growth Buoyant domestic demand should ensure that sub-Saharan Africa remains one of the world’s best performing regions over the next two years, even if the global economy remains weak. We are particularly... 12th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia's Central Bank resists government pressure to ease policy The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) kept its benchmark interest rates on hold today and signalled that, despite growing pressure from the government to ease policy, any move in rates in either direction... 12th February 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Our verdict on Governor Shirakawa We expect the two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board to conclude this Thursday (14th) without any major policy initiatives. A weak Q4 GDP figure might still prompt the Board to add... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would more flexible inflation-targeting achieve? Mark Carney suggested last Thursday that, rather than changing the monetary framework altogether, introducing more flexibility into the existing inflation-targeting regime is his preferred option. The... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
