Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jul.) Wage growth slowed in July and is likely to ease further in coming months as bonus season ends. Unless regular earnings pick up markedly, households’ purchasing power will therefore become further... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Further easing coming, but not just yet The Bank of Japan is unlikely to make any major policy changes at its two-day September meeting, which concludes on Thursday. Recent economic and market developments have mostly been positive, and... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Split vote on QE to re-emerge The long-awaited introduction of forward guidance has probably not had quite the impact the MPC was hoping for. We think that some members will vote to resume quantitative easing (QE) this month... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Dovish statement to temper expectation of rate hikes in Colombia The dovish tone of the Colombian central bank’s monetary policy announcement supports our view that interest rates will remain lower for longer than most expect. We would not rule out further rate... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS Report on Manufacturing (Aug.) & FLS data (Q2) August’s CIPS manufacturing survey added to the proliferation of evidence indicating that the sector is recovering rapidly. Meanwhile, the most recent update on the usage of the Funding for Lending... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Global developments unlikely to influence Fed tapering Recent global and domestic developments are more likely to lead the Fed to taper QE3 by a relatively small amount at September’s policy meeting rather than prompt it to hold fire until October or... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Spare capacity diminishing but still large On balance, the available evidence suggests that spare capacity remains ample. While the falling unemployment rate points to a tightening labour market, wage growth is weak. The output gap is still... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Households back on their feet, but not yet ready to run Data released last week point to a brightening near-term outlook for euro-zone households, suggesting that consumption growth will gather pace in Q3. But given that a meaningful recovery in the labour... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly What will the MPC do next? Despite his best efforts in last week’s speech in Nottingham, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney failed to bring the markets any closer to the MPC’s way of thinking regarding the interest rate... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Gains from interest rate liberalisation being overplayed High hopes are being pinned on interest rate liberalisation to inject some vitality into China’s economy. But the full gains from liberalisation will only be realised if the government is willing to... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Monetary conditions to stay loose despite Fed tapering We expect the Fed to begin to scale back its monetary stimulus in September, but the tapering process will be slow and US interest rates will remain low for an extended period. Moreover, central banks... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jul 13.) Household borrowing is continuing to expand, but fairly modestly. Despite fears that the Bank of England’s commitment to low interest rates will spark another credit boom, the main problem still seems... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Aug. 13 ) The improving trend in consumer sentiment provides some hope that the recent rises in household spending will be maintained even though consumers’ real incomes are still being squeezed. 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Jul.) Today’s industrial production and labour market data show that the recovery should continue in the third quarter. Meanwhile, the ongoing rise in consumer price inflation is still largely a reflection... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Draghi won't firm up his guidance While the recent improvement in the euro-zone’s economic prospects suggests that a further cut in interest rates is unlikely in the near future, President Draghi will no doubt repeat the relatively... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Slower growth in Indonesia likely after recent rate hikes The extent of the latest rout in emerging market currencies has prompted comparisons with previous crises, such as that in the autumn of 2008. But we suspect some recovery may be around the corner... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
