Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec. 12) A lack of demand, rather than the level of interest rates or problems with credit supply, remains the key factor holding back broad monetary growth in Japan. 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Are we really on the verge of interest rate cuts in Mexico? The dovish tone of the statement that accompanied last week’s decision by the Mexican central bank to keep interest rates on hold has fuelled speculation that policy could soon be eased. Growth has... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Should we worry about the Bank of Japan’s independence? The Bank of Japan’s adoption of an explicit 2% inflation target after this was called for by the new government has added to fears that central banks worldwide will be forced to monetise public debt... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed still looking for substantial improvement in labour market The first FOMC meeting of the New Year, which concludes next Wednesday (30th January), is unlikely to bring any major changes coming, as it does, only six weeks after the Fed expanded its large-scale... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC mins. (Jan.), Speeches by King and Cameron The minutes of January’s MPC meeting suggested that the views of its members are becoming increasingly polarised, indicating that next month’s decision over whether or not to provide the economy with... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) November's solid 0.8% m/m gain in retail sales volumes, paired with a similar increase in wholesale trade, suggests that monthly GDP grew by 0.3% m/m in November. Nonetheless, there is still some... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Little scope for looser policy in Turkey Although the Turkish central bank cut some of its key interest rates today, this doesn’t necessarily amount to monetary easing. In fact, we think there is little scope for falls in market interest... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan’s policy overhaul fails to impress Despite the much-hyped announcement of “open-ended easing” to meet a new 2% inflation target, today’s policy overhaul by the Bank of Japan disappoints in many respects. In particular, the ceiling on... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Room for relatively small rate cuts in Nigeria Slowing inflation and sub-trend growth in Nigeria mean that interest rate cuts are likely this year, but concerns over fiscal profligacy and a weakening currency limits the room for significant easing... 21st January 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Income inequality is an economic as well as social issue Wide income inequality in China is undermining economic stability as well generating concerns about social tensions. 21st January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack A lacklustre festive season 2012 seems to have ended on a fairly underwhelming note with consumers relatively cautious over the festive period. 18th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The slight drop in the University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence to a one-year low of 71.3 in January, from 72.9, suggests that the actual onset of lower after-tax incomes in the New... 18th January 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Economy picks up speed, recovery’s durability in doubt Today’s Q4 GDP data confirm the turnaround in China’s economy but they show too that it is reliant on the single engine of investment. Continued policy easing would be needed to prolong the... 18th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) December’s drop in the official measure of retail sales volumes confirmed that it was a fairly lacklustre festive period for the high street and provided more evidence that the UK has slipped into a... 18th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: rising inflation narrows space for further easing A recent pick-up in inflation has reduced the space for further policy easing in Brazil, and we expect the Selic rate to remain at 7.25% until at least mid-year. Further ahead, if we are right to... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Solid but unspectacular outlook for South African retail sector Growth in South African retail sales beat consensus expectations in November. But with consumer confidence falling due to rising inflation and fears over job security, the outlook for private... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
