Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada continues to back off rate hikes With inflation now below target and the economy operating well below its potential, it was no surprise to see the Bank of Canada back even further away from raising interest rates. We still think that... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish Bank signals end of easing cycle Today’s larger-than-expected cut in Polish interest rates means that we have probably reached the end of the easing cycle. But while some analysts are now suggesting that interest rates will be hiked... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Four years of 0.5% rates - at least another two to go Tomorrow’s MPC meeting marks the fourth anniversary of official interest rates reaching their record low of just 0.5% in March 2009. We doubt that they will rise before the second half of 2015 at the... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Chilean consumer can’t keep driving economic growth Chilean consumer spending is growing at an unsustainable pace and needs to cool if the economy is to avoid storing up problems for the future. We expect to see a gradual moderation in spending this... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jan.) & Final PMI Survey (Feb.) January’s rise in euro-zone retail sales and the fall in the composite PMI in February add to evidence that while the recession in the region is slowing, it is not over. 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Feb.) On the face of it, February’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor suggested that a resurgence in consumer spending is underway. But temporary factors can likely explain much of that month’s strong growth. At... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Five issues to watch at the National People’s Congress The annual meeting of China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress, starts on Tuesday. Expectations, as usual, are low. This year though, with a new leadership keen to project an energetic image... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC close to doing more There is a reasonable chance that quantitative easing (QE) is resumed at this month’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. The Committee is taking a more flexible approach to the inflation target... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Two-year inflation target would be a step too far One of the policy changes that the new Bank of Japan Governor is likely to consider is a further clarification of the 2% inflation target. Mr Kuroda himself has reportedly suggested an explicit... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Negative interest rates back on the agenda Attention last week turned swiftly from the UK’s downgrade to Paul Tucker’s comments about negative interest rates. Even if the MPC does not actually go down this route, it is heartening that even... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Personal Income & Spending (Jan.) Households absorbed the large drop in income in January by reducing their saving rather than their spending. But the effects of the payroll tax hike and the latest surge in gasoline prices will... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jan.) Ostensibly, January’s household borrowing figures suggested that that the pick-up in credit growth seen in recent months is tailing off. However, the bad weather in January is likely to have played a... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What to expect from Hungary's new Bank governor The decision to nominate Economy Minister Gyorgy Matolcsy to become Hungary’s new central bank governor is another blow to the Bank’s independence and is likely to result in further interest rate cuts... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Support for Italy would come with strings attached The renewed deterioration in some indicators of economic activity and fears about the political situation in Italy should prompt the ECB to strike a softer tone after its next meeting. President... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Feb.) February’s unchanged level of consumer confidence is consistent with evidence from the CBI’s Distributive Trades survey that the consumer sector is lacking momentum. Whether last week’s credit rating... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has the Italian election disabled the ECB’s bazooka? The renewed rise in Italian and other government bond yields following the inconclusive result of the Italian general election has raised questions over the continued effectiveness of the European... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
