UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Mar.) March’s still weak level of consumer confidence tallies with evidence from the CBI’s Distributive Trades survey that the consumer sector is still fundamentally quite fragile. And looking ahead, we... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rise in spending fuelled by drop in saving The gentle recovery in household spending continued at the end of last year. However, the fact that households had to save less in the fourth quarter in order to raise their spending suggested that... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch High expectations almost impossible to meet It is a near certainty that at least one of the two Bank of Japan Board meetings in April will result in a further loosening in monetary policy. Indeed, we would not be surprised to see both meetings... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Mar. 13) March’s fall in the euro-zone EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) provides a further sign that the euro-zone economy had started to lose momentum even before the recent escalation of the crisis in... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Mar.) March's sharp decline in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to 59.7, from 68.0 in February, is probably a delayed reaction to higher gasoline prices, which were prevalent during... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update New-look Hungarian MPC resists more aggressive policy easing The fact that Hungary’s new-look MPC did not lower interest rates by more than 25bps today underlines the extent to which policymakers are constrained by the threat of a sell-off in the financial... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey's rate cut a cosmetic change Today’s cut in Turkey’s overnight lending rate is a cosmetic change, and doesn’t reflect an easing of policy. In fact, the central bank has tightened policy in recent weeks. And with domestic demand... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Positive wealth effects from equity gains still limited The latest Flow of Funds report, published today by the Bank of Japan, confirms that the surge in equity prices on the back of the “Abe trade” has boosted the value of household assets, but also that... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian rates to remain low for an extended period We suspect that the decision by the Colombian central bank to reduce interest rates by 50bps to 3.25% was an attempt to front-load rate cuts rather than the start of a more aggressive easing cycle... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Another rate cut in Vietnam, further loosening likely The central bank in Vietnam today announced the seventh reduction in interest rates in just over a year. The move comes in response to very weak growth and subdued price pressures. With the economy... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Pick-up in spending will be difficult to sustain While consumer spending has shown some signs of life in the first part of this year, the momentum will be difficult to sustain. Although some of the measures announced by the Chancellor in the Budget... 22nd March 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt rate hike a sign of desperation The Egyptian central bank’s move to raise interest rates in spite of the weak economy shows that policymakers have run out of options. Capital controls and FX intervention haven’t been sufficient to... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Forward-looking guidance unlikely to save the day Following the rather vague change to the MPC’s remit announced in yesterday’s Budget, the ball is now back in the Bank of England’s court. But even if the Monetary Policy Committee decides to follow... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Budget measures amount to small beer for consumers While yesterday’s Budget resulted in a net giveaway to consumers, it did little to reduce the blow to household incomes which will be inflicted by further waves of austerity in the coming years. 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed sticks with its QE plans for now The Fed acknowledged in its statement today that the economy was again growing at a "moderate" pace and FOMC participants revised their forecasts for the unemployment rate slightly lower for 2014 and... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: the slowdown deepens A raft of weak activity data for February puts a big dent in hopes for a rebound in the Russian economy in Q1. What’s more, there are further signs that the slowdown is being driven as much by... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
