Latin America Economics Update Mexican rates on hold for the foreseeable future We suspect that the Mexican central bank (BANXICO) is set for another prolonged period of inactivity. High inflation will prevent additional rate cuts in the near term, while a rebound in economic... 26th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Monetary Indicators (Apr.) Japan’s adoption of a far more aggressive monetary policy stance early this month has left the ECB looking increasingly out of step with its peers. 26th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Slowdown in consumption growth is here to stay Although consumption growth was respectable in the second half of last year, the further deceleration in income growth, along with the reported weakness of retail spending, suggests that it has slowed... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deleveraging in Denmark: what lessons for other Nordics? Household spending in Denmark has barely recovered since its housing bubble burst in 2007 and there appears little respite ahead for households. With rising debt now fuelling housing booms in Sweden... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Capital inflows a worry in the Philippines Worries over capital inflows are a major concern for the central bank in the Philippines (BSP), which has been stepping up efforts to deter “hot money”. Although the BSP left its key overnight rate on... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Balance marginally in favour of rate cut Having stated following its last meeting that it stood ready to act, it would be a big disappointment if the ECB did nothing at the forthcoming meeting on May 2nd. On balance, we think that an... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Deleveraging in Denmark: what lessons for other Nordics? Household spending in Denmark has barely recovered since its housing bubble burst in 2007 and there appears little respite ahead for households. With rising debt now fuelling housing booms in Sweden... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Weaker data mean the Fed is unlikely to curb QE3 yet The deterioration in the incoming economic data for March will, at least temporarily, prevent the Fed from slowing the pace of its monthly asset purchases. We anticipate that the Fed will stand pat at... 24th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Apr.) The fall in April’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey provides further reason to think that the pick-up in the consumer sector earlier this year was just temporary. With employment now falling and the... 24th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update End of QE not necessarily the end of the world Concerns about the potential impact of the end of quantitative easing ebb and flow, but we remain relatively sanguine. Detailed market forecasts will follow shortly in our quarterly publications, The... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Forint concerns limit scope for aggressive easing in Hungary Falling inflation and an economy struggling to escape from recession mean that further interest rate cuts are likely in Hungary. But we remain of the view that currency concerns will prevent... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Credibility now requires higher inflation forecasts The focus at Friday’s meeting of the Policy Board will be on the new GDP and inflation forecasts to be published in the Bank’s “Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices”. Monetary policy itself was... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Labour market weakness set to undermine spending The labour market’s recent deterioration threatens to nip the nascent recovery in consumer spending in the bud. Employment has begun to fall again and the forward-looking surveys suggest no imminent... 19th April 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Consumption stimulus should not be welcomed Talk in China of new subsidies to boost household spending is an unwelcome sign that officials may have been diverted by the recent disappointing growth numbers towards thinking of short-term fixes... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus Canada enjoying wealth advantage over US Based on our calculations of total domestic net worth, Canadians appears to be better off than their seemingly more affluent neighbours to the south. The problem is that the advantage Canada enjoys is... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil tightening cycle to be smaller than most expect The decision by Brazil’s central bank to raise interest rates by 25bps – as opposed to the 50bps that was priced into the market – suggests that the tightening cycle is likely to be less aggressive... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
