US Economic Outlook Recovery now being held back by fiscal tightening The US recovery has, up to now, remained lacklustre, but there are signs that this extended malaise could finally give way to a period of more vigorous growth. We expect GDP growth to accelerate from... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (May) Thanks to the continued rally in equity prices, falling gasoline prices and the housing recovery, the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence rose to a five-year high of 76.2 in May, from 69.0... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s scope to ease policy limited by FX debt The weakness of Hungary’s economy, coupled with below-target inflation, means that further interest rate cuts are likely over the next couple of months. However, we think the country’s high level of... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Weaker growth keeps EM central banks in easing mode In aggregate terms, EM monetary policy has been loosened over the past six months. But there has been a big difference between the actions of central banks in each EM region. In Europe and, more... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo (May), Consumer Conf. (Jun) & Final GDP (Q1) May’s renewed rise in the German Ifo survey and the increase in the GfK consumer confidence indicator for June added to signs that the economy is recovering. But we expect the recovery to be modest. 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Nascent recovery begins to wither The nascent recovery in consumer spending lost pace in the first quarter and there are signs that it has wilted further since. Admittedly, some of the weakness of the latest evidence reflects... 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Tightening bias will soon become unnecessary The outgoing Governor Carney's last scheduled statement next week (May 29th) is unlikely to hint at any shift in policy. Nor do we believe that his replacement Stephen Poloz, due to take over next... 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: rates on hold as rand plummets The collapse in the rand over the past week or so means that, despite the continued weakness of South Africa’s economy, there is little room for the Reserve Bank to loosen monetary policy. In fact, it... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer support for growth fades Real household spending continued to support overall GDP growth in Q1, seeing its sixth successive quarterly rise. But it was the weakest rate of expansion in 18 months. And given a softer labour... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan sticks to its guns The Bank of Japan’s inaction today was no surprise, nor was Governor Kuroda’s relatively sanguine attitude to the jump in JGB yields. However, the April external trade data were disappointing and the... 22nd May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Pub. Fin. (Apr.), MPC Minutes (May) Today’s data contained some mixed signals on the strength of the economic recovery, with retail sales slumping but with the public finances making a reasonable start to the year. 22nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria resists government pressure to cut rates The Central Bank of Nigeria resisted government pressure to cut interest rates this afternoon, but we suspect that a combination of below-trend growth and sub-10% inflation will pave the way for... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Kuroda to seek to reassure JGB investors The Bank of Japan’s two-day meeting (which concludes on Wednesday) is unlikely to result in any major policy changes. Governor Kuroda will want to address the recent jump in JGB yields, although we... 20th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (May) The sharp increase in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence to a near-six-year high of 83.7 in May, from 76.4, is due to a fruitful combination of a number of events. It appears... 17th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile prepares the ground for rate cuts later in the year The Central Bank of Chile (BCC) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.0% last night, however the accompanying statement was a little more dovish in tone than in recent months. We continue to... 17th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM consumer spending unlikely to stage strong recovery Over-invoicing by exporters over the last five months has significantly inflated the apparent strength of overseas demand. While official customs data show a surge in exports, this is not evident in... 17th May 2013 · 1 min read
