Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada sticks with rate tightening bias The Bank of Canada's decision to stick with its rate tightening bias, despite growing economic slack and below-target inflation, rests uncomfortably on its faith that economic growth will accelerate... 17th April 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Boost to confidence from “Abenomics” may be waning Consumer confidence rose in March, but by less than expected. What’s more, Japanese households may not view the prospect of an end to deflation quite as positively as businesses and investors. 17th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Apr.) & Labour Market Data (Feb./Mar.) The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) still seems to be in a state of paralysis ahead of the new Governor’s arrival in July, despite indications that the weakness of the economy is finally starting to... 17th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Debt concerns still dominating the Riksbank’s thoughts The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.0% was no surprise given the recent run of encouraging economic data. But while the chances of an imminent cut have perhaps... 17th April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi dollar peg here to stay for the long-term Concerns that Saudi Arabia’s dollar peg is no longer suitable in light of the country’s growing trade ties with Asia look wide of the mark. There are a myriad of other tools that Saudi policymakers... 17th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update End of QE3 might not trigger a rise in UST term premiums One counter-argument to our view that the scaling back of QE3 would not trigger a rise in US Treasury yields is that "term premiums" would soar. However, the evidence is mixed. 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore to keep monetary policy tight The Monetary Authority of Singapore’s decision to leave policy settings unchanged on Friday was no great surprise, given persistently high inflation. Despite the likelihood that growth will remain... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey's phoney rate cut We expect the Central Bank of Turkey to cut its benchmark one-week repo rate for the first time in four months at next week’s MPC meeting. But the myriad of different tools now deployed by the Bank... 12th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Apr.) Coming after a weak retail sales report for March, the sharp drop in April's University of Michigan's index of consumer confidence to a nine-month low of 72.3, from 78.6, is another sign of a slowdown... 12th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile, Peru to extend long pause on interest rates The central banks of Chile and Peru left their respective policy rates unchanged last night and offered little to suggest that a near-term rate move is on the cards. In the case of Chile, though, it... 12th April 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesian rates to stay on hold despite inflation risks Although Bank Indonesia kept interest rates on hold today, there is a growing risk that rising headline inflation will cause the central bank to hike rates before the end of the year. However... 11th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish National Bank takes more dovish stance The Polish MPC appears to have taken a slightly more dovish stance since last month following weaker-than-expected inflation and activity data. Our base case remains that interest rates will be left... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank edging closer to neutral We don't anticipate any major changes from the Bank of Canada at Governor Mark Carney's penultimate policy meeting next Wednesday (April 17th), but the Bank will be forced to admit in the accompanying... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How dependent are low US Treasury yields on QE3? The conventional wisdom appears to be that 10-year Treasury yields are only likely to remain below 2% if the US central bank maintains its current pace of buying. In fact, the launches of successive... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What might Japan’s easing mean for the rest of the world? The more ambitious policy stance adopted by the Bank of Japan has had a major impact on the yen and the relative performance of Japanese equities. But speculation that Japan’s additional monetary... 9th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal squeeze temporarily eases for households Given the controversy about the tax and benefit changes introduced in recent days, the point that these measures are in aggregate putting some cash in households’ pockets has been overlooked. That... 9th April 2013 · 1 min read
