Europe Economics Weekly Fed inaction brings the ECB respite, for now Last week’s surprise (to most people) decision by the US Federal Reserve not to “taper” its asset purchases has some near-term benefits for the euro-zone. But it does not eliminate the longer-term... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly US Fed helps out Mr Carney With UK gilt yields unhelpfully following US Treasury yields up in recent months, it was welcome that they followed them down last week. Admittedly, with the prospect of more QE receding and the... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Strong Q2 growth to temper talk of a rate cut Stronger-than-expected second quarter GDP growth in Colombia may temper expectations of interest rate cuts at next week’s monetary policy meeting. We continue to expect rates remain unchanged at 3.25%... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update More Egyptian rate cuts could be on the way The Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) decision to cut interest rates by 50bp today shows that policymakers are fully focussed on supporting the economy. With the backing of aid from the Gulf, additional... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What would a Taylor rule imply for global monetary policy? Applying a simple Taylor rule to our economic forecasts suggests that the Federal Reserve is the only major central bank which should tighten monetary policy (or scale back its stimulus) before 2016... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: rates on hold despite Fed surprise The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) left rates on hold today and gave no indication that any change was likely in the foreseeable future. Growth remains below trend, but policymakers expect... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Aug. 13) The further rise in existing home sales in August may reflect a rush of sales from buyers keen to avoid any further rise in mortgage interest rates. 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A reprieve for troubled EMs, but fundamental problems persist The Fed’s decision yesterday not to taper its asset purchases just yet provides some breathing room for the more troubled emerging economies. But their structural problems remain and uncertainty about... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB to remain in strongly accommodative mode Despite the improvement in financial market conditions, continued recovery of the Swiss economy and softening of the franc, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) re-emphasised today that it intends to... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank unlikely to hike before end-2014 Although the recent rise in inflation prompted the Norges Bank to bring forward its projected hiking cycle, we think that a slowdown in the economy will prevent the Bank hiking before the end of 2014. 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand set for a solid rebound New Zealand’s economy slowed in Q2, as drought hit agricultural and manufacturing production. However, there were encouraging signs of improvement in other areas of the economy, which bodes well for... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Credit slowdown set to weigh on Thailand’s growth Thailand’s economic growth since the global financial crisis has been supported by an unsustainable surge in credit. Cooling this credit boom is essential to avoid a future crisis but, as this happens... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank unlikely to hike before end-2014 Although the recent rise in inflation prompted the Norges Bank to bring forward its projected hikingcycle, we think that a slowdown in the economy will prevent the Bank hiking before the end of 2014. 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada's economic rebound unlikely Governor Stephen Poloz's speech today indicated that that the Bank of Canada is doubling-down on its earlier bet that the economy is poised for a comeback, led by a rebound in exports and then... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed delays taper; then fails to offer a clear explanation why The Fed's decision to maintain its asset purchases at $85bn per month was, given that most commentators expected a modest reduction in the pace today, unsurprisingly bond and equity positive. We... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: twin deficits to keep monetary policy tight A failure to sufficiently rein in large budget and current account deficits means that further monetary tightening is still likely in Ghana, despite the Central Bank’s decision to keep interest rates... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
