UK Economics Focus Too low for too long? Following the Bank of England’s announcement of forward guidance, there have been a number of warnings about the dangers of a further prolonged period of very low interest rates. We think these... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary base to rise further in US and Japan Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are likely to continue with quantitative easing for many months to come, even after the Fed has begun scaling back its monthly asset purchases. With... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Consumption tax hike leaves credibility at risk Following a strong Q3 Tankan survey, the Japanese government today confirmed that it will go ahead with the first consumption tax hike next April. However, the decision to offset some of the fiscal... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s central bank still likely to cut again The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its policy rate on hold at 2.5% today. However, we still expect further loosening over the coming months, and think that rates will remain very low in 2014. 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s easing cycle nearing an end The Romanian central bank cut interest rates again today against the backdrop of weak growth and falling inflation. However, the Bank lowered rates by less than it did in August due, it seems, to... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to stay on hold for another year Relatively subdued GDP growth looks set to ensure that interest rates in Colombia will remain lower forlonger than most expect. We think that the benchmark rate is likely to remain unchanged at 3.25... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Quick-fire reforms won’t prevent renewed taper-turbulence Suggestions that policymakers in troubled emerging markets (EM) now have a window of opportunity to reduce external vulnerabilities before the Fed begins to taper miss the point that these countries’... 27th September 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch What will the Bank think of the consumption tax decision? The Bank of Japan’s two-day Policy Boardmeeting, which concludes next Friday, will beovershadowed by the release of the Tankan surveyand the confirmation of the government’s decisionon the consumption... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No rush to hike rates in Taiwan Taiwan’s central bank left interest rates on hold today amid signs of a gradual improvement in the economy. Looking ahead, with inflation set to remain subdued, the CBC has scope to keep interest... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we worry about the fiscal impact of higher bond yields? On their own, the increases in government bond yields since May do not pose a significant threat to the public finances of most advanced economies. Higher yields in the secondary market take a long... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch More LTROs in the pipeline? The firmer tone of the economic data has ruled out any change in interest rates at the ECB Governing Council meeting on 2nd October, while the US Federal Reserve’s recent communication problems will... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Different MPC views could further weaken forward guidance Mark Carney’s forward guidance has been unsuccessful in convincing the markets that the Bank Rate is likely to remain on hold until 2016. Speeches from other MPC members in the last two days... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian interest rates to stay on hold for prolonged period The weakness of the naira and concerns over loose fiscal policy meant the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept interest rates on hold at 12.00% today, despite inflation remaining comfortably below... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A little further to go in Hungary’s easing cycle Following today’s cut in Hungarian interest rates, we are revising our year-end rate forecast to 3.00% from 3.50%. With inflation below target and the economic recovery still fragile, it looks like... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Is "forward guidance" a step backwards? It’s going a bit far to claim that the Fed has lost all credibility simply because most in the markets were surprised by its decision not to begin winding down its asset purchase programme this month... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed fails to understand that sometimes, less is more We were a little surprised by the Fed's conclusion last week that it wasn't ready to begin tapering its asset purchases. As we wrote in our Fed Watch ahead of the meeting, however, a tapering was "far... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
