UK Economics Update Sterling’s slide reflects more than the “Carney short” While some of the pound’s recent fall probably reflects expected changes in monetary policy – the so-called “Carney short” – it has also reflected the growing view that the UK’s economic outlook is... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed contemplating early end to QE3 The minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting in late January suggest that rising fears over the potential costs from further quantitative easing could prompt Fed officials to reduce or even halt the... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Feb.) & Labour market (Dec./Jan.) February’s MPC minutes provided another clear demonstration of the Committee’s increasingly flexible approach to inflation targeting. We continue to think that more QE is only a few months away. 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Negative rates: lessons from Denmark The Danish central bank’s use of negative interest rates provides an insight into one of the few untried tools still available to major central banks. Denmark’s experience suggests that negative rates... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The Fed’s QE3 policy has contributed to the acceleration in the growth rate of our M3* measure of broad money to a four-year high of 6.5% in January. But the continued expansion in the Fed’s balance... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil consumption: holding up for now Despite the surprise fall in retail sales in December, Brazilian consumer spending growth appears to have been strong in the final quarter of last year. The problem is that with local producers either... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers in a Catch-22 Although the Turkish central bank cut interest rates today, it also raised reserve requirements, so the overall impact on monetary conditions is ambiguous. The key point is that policymakers are in a... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus The "two-speed" continent The scope for rapid “catch-up” growth, allied with improving levels of governance, point to a relatively upbeat outlook for most of sub-Saharan Africa over the next decade or so. By contrast, a lack... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Negative rates: lessons from Denmark The Danish central bank’s use of negative interest rates provides an insight into one of the few untried tools still available to major central banks. Denmark’s experience suggests that negative rates... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Real pay to fall for longer Recent developments have darkened the outlook for inflation and therefore imply that the squeeze on real pay is likely to persist to the very end of 2013. The recent rise in oil prices suggests that... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update G20 doubles up on familiar messages The fall-out from an extended period of monetary expansion in the US and Japan will continue to ripple around the global financial system, not least in the form of capital flows to emerging markets... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Raising interest rates would be a big mistake We are approaching the fourth anniversary of official interest rates reaching a record low of just 0.5% in March 2009 and concerns have been growing about the damage caused by such a prolonged period... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Growing risk of disappointment from new-look BoJ The government is due to announce its nominee for Bank of Japan Governor in the next few days, with expectations running high that the successful candidate will set policy-making on a new course. The... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The rise in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence to 76.3 in February, from 73.8, probably reflects a mixture of better news on the labour market and the continued rally in stock... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) January’s surprise fall in the official measure of retail sales volumes has brought the recent run of better economic news to an abrupt end. While most of this weakness appears to have reflected the... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the ECB follow words with actions? Mario Draghi’s hints that the ECB might respond to the threat posed by the strength of the euro begs the question of just what action it could take. While there are plenty of policy options still... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
