UK Economics Update No-change decision could mask split vote The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unsurprisingly left policy on hold today in the wake of its recent introduction of forward guidance on interest rates and the stronger economic news. But if markets... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Central bank in Malaysia to hike rates next year Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% at its meeting today. We expect the BNM to keep rates on hold for the rest of the year before hiking by 25bp as it looks to reduce... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan reiterates support for consumption tax hikes Governor Kuroda today underlined the Bank of Japan’s view – already reflected in its economic forecasts – that the planned consumption tax hikes will neither derail the recovery nor prevent inflation... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank’s economic forecasts still look too optimistic-Sep The Swedish Riksbank continued to suggest that interest rate hikes are unlikely until the end of 2014. But we expect the economic recovery to be weaker than the Bank expects, implying that rates could... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What should we make of India’s latest reforms? The new governor of India’s central bank has arrived with a package of reforms that should settle the nerves of investors. However, the government has not been playing its part, making little progress... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank’s economic forecasts still look too optimistic The Swedish Riksbank continued to suggest that interest rate hikes are unlikely until the end of 2014. But we expect the economic recovery to be weaker than the Bank expects, implying that rates could... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada turning more dovish Although the Bank of Canada retained its tightening bias word for word, it now admits that the continuing weakness in exports and investment mean hopes of a smooth 'rotation in demand' look less... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery quickens as productivity rebounds The run of positive economic news has continued, with quarterly GDP growth in Q2 revised up to 0.7% and August’s CIPS/Markit PMIs pointing to even stronger growth in Q3. The divergence between output... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Shift towards tighter policy in Poland looks some way off Governor Belka provided few clues at his post-MPC press conference about when the Polish National Bank might shift towards tightening mode. But with the economic recovery unlikely to be accompanied by... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why is ‘forward guidance’ failing to anchor long-term Gilts? The MPC’s commitment to keep interest rates on hold has failed to prevent the yield on 10-year Gilts rising by more than that on US Treasuries. But we think the difference in monetary policy prospects... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Business and household prospects diverging The preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP only added to the uncertainty about the planned consumption tax hikes. The latest monthly data have mostly been favourable, notably the buoyancy of business... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Less could be more when it comes to forward guidance The ECB’s apparent success in verbally influencing the financial markets might reflect the vagueness of the central bank’s communications. But policy actions will always mean more than words. 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Consumers leading moderate recovery The euro-zone exited its record-long recession in Q2 and recent business surveys suggest that the economy should expand again in the third quarter. An increase in household spending, the first in... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Next move in Kenyan interest rates likely to be up African currencies have come under renewed pressure in August, with the South African rand and the Ghanaian cedi suffering more than most. But while currencies have weakened, local equity markets have... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fed poised to begin tapering Monetary conditions in the major advanced economies have remained exceptionally loose even as the Federal Reserve prepares to scale back QE3. 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Aug.) While August saw the BRC’s measure of retail sales growth slow a touch, another month of expansion should boost retailers’ confidence that a solid, if unspectacular, rise in consumer spending is... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
