Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's external risks mean policy easing is off the cards Growing strains in the balance of payments continue to prevent any loosening of monetary policy to support Egypt’s struggling economy. We don’t think there will be any scope to ease policy until the... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jan.) January’s modest uptick in consumer confidence is consistent with evidence from the CBI’s Distributive Trades survey that 2013 got off to a so-so start. But talk of a “triple-dip” recession following... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed swaps one hawk for another The latest Fed statement offers little new, apart from a change in the resident hawk on the FOMC. We still expect QE to be maintained at $85bn per month until early 2014. 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will weak consumer confidence hold back the recovery? Financial markets and many businesses have become more optimistic about the global economic outlook, but consumer confidence has typically remained weak. We expect households in the US and Europe in... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Growth of the broad money supply is still quite strong, but it is heading in the wrong direction. Meanwhile, the recent loosening of credit conditions has not fed through into a meaningful pick-up in... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Slower consumption growth to linger Slower growth in wages and salaries and lower consumer confidence suggest that real consumption growth slowed sharply in the fourth quarter, to only half the 3.8% annualised gain in the third. We... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) December’s household borrowing figures provided further evidence that the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) is having a beneficial impact on credit growth. Nonetheless, the recovery in lending is... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The drop in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to a 14-month low of 58.6 in January, from 66.7, appears to have been driven by the recent payroll tax increase. Even if confidence does... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary's easing cycle on shaky foundations Hungary’s external vulnerabilities mean that the scope for further interest rate cuts will depend on the forint holding up. The bigger picture, however, is that even if policy is eased further... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to remain lower for longer The slowdown in Colombian growth has been driven as much by structural as by cyclical factors, and suggests that interest rates could remain low for an extended period. We expect at least one more... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Consumer spending in London will continue to outperform Between 2006 and 2012 London was probably the only UK region to experience a real rise in consumer spending, of perhaps 0.7% a year. This particularly reflected growth in the financial, professional... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rising car sales unlikely to signal general consumer pick-up One rare bright spot in the consumer sector recently has been the pick-up in spending on cars. While cars comprise a relatively small part of overall consumer spending, this could still be promising... 25th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African Reserve Bank faces difficult balancing act Concerns over the effects of a weakening rand on inflation will continue to leave the South African Reserve Bank with little room to loosen policy in order to support growth over the coming months. 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A new front in the "currency war" An improvement in risk appetite since the turn of the year has supported further gains in Latin American financial markets. But with the good news has come renewed upward pressure on the region’s... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak economy bolsters case for Polish rate cuts There is a growing sense in the markets that the Polish National Bank could pause its easing cycle next month, but given the weakness of the most recent data, we think the case is less clear cut. For... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada backing down on tightening bias In a surprise climb down, the Bank of Canada admitted that the need to withdraw policy stimulus is less imminent, partly reflecting the weaker global economic outlook, but mainly because the housing... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
