Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Dec.), Unemp. & Retail Sales (Nov.) Despite the small rise in economic sentiment in December, the latest batch of eurozone data still presented a decidedly downbeat picture of the state of the currency union’s economy at the end of last... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What would Scottish independence mean for the remaining UK? We think that Scotland’s exit from the Union would be unlikely to benefit the rest of the UK and could even represent a net economic cost. The UK would probably retain some of the disadvantages of... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Little room for policy stimulus in Romania In spite of the recent easing in financial market tensions, there is little scope for Romanian policymakers to cut interest rates to support growth. As such, we think the economy is likely to flatline... 7th January 2013 · 1 min read
BoE Watch More QE likely this year, albeit not immediately The renewed pick-up in inflation and the tentative success of the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) mean that more quantitative easing (QE) does not look imminent. But if the economic stagnation... 7th January 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch A testing new year Having prevented catastrophe in 2012 by pledging to do whatever it takes to save the euro, the European Central Bank will have to follow words with actions in 2013. While no policy changes are likely... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What to expect from Brazil in 2013 Brazil’s recovery will continue in 2013 but growth is likely to be lacklustre by historic standards. Above target inflation will prevent further policy support in the first few months of the year, but... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A look ahead to 2013 In this final Weekly of the year we take a look ahead to some of main events and themes that will shape Japan’s economy in 2013. Key among these are the incoming LDP government’s first budget and the... 24th December 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Further easing risks undermining Bank of Japan independence At its Policy Board meeting today, the Bank of Japan extended its asset purchase program and announced a review of its inflation target. Since Sunday’s election, the incoming LDP government has... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan's monetary policy likely to be loosened in 2013 Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) kept its policy rate at 1.875% today, as was widely expected. The economy’s dependence on export-led growth means that the state of external demand will remain the key... 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Dec.) December’s MPC minutes had something of an “end of term” feel and simply confirmed that the Committee is in wait and see mode. Perhaps the most notable aspect was further evidence of the MPC’s growing... 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update 2012: Day of reckoning postponed by the ECB Our fears that 2012 could be the “crunch year” for the euro-zone were not borne out – barring catastrophe in the next week or so! However, the fact that the economic news has been largely as we... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary and Turkey cut rates in spite of external risks Policymakers in Hungary and Turkey cut interest rates today as the general improvement in global risk appetite in recent months has reduced concerns over external vulnerabilities and allowed the... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's central bank signals rate cut in early 2013 The Reserve Bank of India had already flagged that it was likely to leave rates unchanged today, at 8.0%. Of more interest was the accompanying statement which points to a rate cut in early 2013 and... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Negative ECB rates might do more harm than good Given the dubious benefits and possible costs of cutting deposit rates below zero, we still see ECB interest rates remaining on hold for the foreseeable future. 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish Riksbank lowers rates and further cuts to come We doubt that the latest interest rate reduction by the Swedish Riksbank will be the last in the current cycle. While the Bank has concerns about the longer-term effects of a prolonged period of low... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank lowers rates and further cuts to come We doubt that the latest interest rate reduction by the Swedish Riksbank will be the last in the current cycle. While the Bank has concerns about the longer-term effects of a prolonged period of low... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
