Europe Chart Pack Monetary weakness casts doubts over recovery Survey-based euro-zone activity indicators like the composite PMI have continued to strengthen in recent months, raising the prospect that the currency union’s economy may finally emerge from its near... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: interest rate hikes delayed, not abandoned Rising inflation and a weakening currency means that interest rates in Ghana are still likely to rise again before the end of the year, despite the Central Bank’s decision to keep rates on hold today... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Rates to stay lower than the market expects Latin American central banks have taken divergent paths in 2013. Whereas Brazil started to hike interest rates in April, both Colombia and Mexico have trimmed their benchmark rates this year... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) & Labour Cash Earnings (Jun.) The first drop in the manufacturing PMI since late last year indicates that the recovery may now be entering a slower phase. Meanwhile wage growth remains insufficient to compensate for rising... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan set for gradual recovery GDP data released today showed that Taiwan’s economy remained lacklustre in the second quarter. Growth is likely to remain weak in the near-term but, with the global economy set to record a slow, but... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Jul.) Despite impressive gains in equity prices, the recent rebound in gasoline prices and rising interest rates hit consumer confidence in July. The Conference Board measure dropped back modestly to 80.3... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Central banks call an end to Africa’s easing cycle The main message from this month’s monetary policy meetings in Africa is that the easing cycle that began in several countries in mid-2012 has probably now come to an end. But at the same time we do... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian rates to be kept on prolonged hold The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its policy rates unchanged at its meeting today, as was widely expected. Recently-implemented tightening measures could be removed within the next few months, if... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update New Fed Chair unlikely to alter policy outlook much Contrary to the speculation over the past few days, regardless of whether Lawrence Summers, Janet Yellen or a third candidate gets the nod, we suspect that the outlook for US monetary policy would... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch ‘‘Forward guidance’’ to have limited impact Some form of ‘‘forward guidance’’ is already being used by many central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada. In the coming weeks, the Bank of England looks set to join them... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jun) June’s household borrowing figures showed a continuation of the modest expansion in credit seen in recent months. But with mortgage approvals unexpectedly declining, evidence of a marked rise in... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to introduce stronger forward guidance The main event this month is likely to be the announcement of formal forward guidance. We expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to commit to keep official interest rates low until an unemployment... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) Today's retail sales figures suggest that consumer spending will again have given a solid boost to GDP growth in Q2. However, sales in June were lower than a month before, and surveys suggest that... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Labour market resilient to slowdown in GDP growth Although the recent incoming data have suggested that second-quarter GDP growth could be particularly disappointing, with a sub 1.0% reading possible, we still expect the Fed to begin tapering its... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The ECB’s monetary pillar is still very weak Last week’s euro-zone data revealed a further pick-up in some measures of real economic activity, with the composite PMI for July raising the prospect that the region’s two-year recession could come... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Stronger consumption growth unlikely to last The evidence suggests that, after a paltry 0.9% annualised in the first quarter, second-quarter real consumption growth accelerated to 3.0% annualised. Unfortunately, we suspect that consumption... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
