US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The annual growth rate of our measure of the broad M3 monetary aggregate edged up slightly to 5.5% in October and, with the Fed hinting at an expansion of its QE3 large-scale asset purchases in the... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Bank of Ghana to keep rates on hold throughout 2013 The Bank of Ghana kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at 15.00% today and, with inflation decelerating and concerns over the cedi easing, we expect rates to remain unchanged throughout 2013. 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Nov.) Although the Bank of England’s latest Inflation Report showed inflation projected to be broadly at its 2% target at the two year policy horizon, Mervyn King’s comments at the press conference... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Board to wait to see impact of recent policy changes The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board meeting next week is likely to be uneventful. The Board has eased monetary policy twice in three meetings over the last two months, and we see little justification for... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is monetary policy reaching its limits? Some members of the MPC appear to think that they are reaching the limits of how much monetary policy can help the economy. We agree that more gilt purchases might not do a lot of good. But this just... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Osborne’s windfall doesn’t change big picture The Government today agreed with the Bank of England to transfer to the Exchequer the excess cash held in the Bank’s quantitative easing (QE) facility. This will leave the published borrowing figures... 9th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: further tightening to come via reserve requirements Last night’s central bank meeting in Peru provided further evidence that policymakers are not considering rate hikes despite vigorous domestic demand and credit growth. Instead, concerns over the... 9th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia signals rates to stay on hold The Central Bank of Russia kept its key interest rates on hold today and the accompanying statement suggests that any change in rates is unlikely in the very near-term. We still think that... 9th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi provides very little comfort While the ECB apparently stands ready to buy peripheral governments’ bonds, President Draghi gave little assurance today about when it might start or how many it might purchase. He also ruled out... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African CPI reweighting doesn't alter rate outlook The new weights assigned to components of the South African CPI basket, which are due to come into effect in January 2013, will have only a marginal impact on overall inflation. As such, the... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC not out of firepower yet The MPC’s decision to leave policy on hold today would not have been an easy one and the vote could have been quite close. We think that more policy stimulus will be required in the coming months –... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia on hold for now, but a cut is likely next year Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) kept its policy rate on hold today at 3.0%, as was widely expected. The economy has performed well amid the global slowdown and so there is little need for the central bank... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Interest rates in Indonesia set for prolonged hold Indonesia’s central bank (BI) kept its reference rate at 5.75% today, as expected. With inflation relatively low and economic growth remaining strong, we expect BI to remain on hold for the remainder... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya cuts rates, pace of easing now set to slow The Central Bank of Kenya cut its benchmark interest rate by 200bps to 11.00% today but, while there is still room for further easing, rates are unlikely to continue falling so sharply over the next... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish easing cycle has much further to run Today’s decision by the National Bank of Poland to cut interest rates by 25bps to 4.50% suggests that policymakers are finally starting to acknowledge that the big threat to the economy comes from... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) China’s consumer price inflation was stable in October, we believe. Looking ahead, both inflation and economic activity look likely to pick up some pace in the next few months, weakening the case for... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
