Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Currency sell-off unlikely to prompt a wave of rate hikes Lingering fears over the impact of a tapering of asset purchases by the US Fed have seen emerging market currencies continue to weaken over the past month – countries with current account deficits... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: weak rand to prevent interest rate cuts The ongoing weakness of the South African rand means that, despite the sluggish pace of economic growth, there is little room for the Reserve Bank to loosen monetary policy. We have taken out our... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What to expect from the ECB’s Asset Quality Review The ECB’s planned review of banks’ balance sheets is key to resuscitating the euro-zone’s struggling banking sector. Forthcoming stress tests are likely to be more credible than previous rounds, but... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Forward guidance – the experience of Sweden Some central banks are beginning to make greater use of “forward guidance” to signal that interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future. The evidence from Sweden, where the Riksbank has... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jun 13.) June’s second consecutive monthly expansion in retail sales volumes provided further evidence that a consumer-led recovery is gaining strength. But, although consumer confidence is picking up and... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Forward guidance – the experience of Sweden Some central banks are beginning to make greater use of “forward guidance” to signal that interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future. The evidence from Sweden, where the Riksbank has... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 head for Moscow to talk about tapering The main talking point at this weekend’s gathering of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors is sure to be the Fed’s plan to taper QE3. But despite the volatility which has hit their markets... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada softens tightening bias Although the Bank of Canada held its view that the economy will soon accelerate and that interest rates will eventually rise, several dovish tweaks to its policy statement suggest even more strongly... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Bernanke reiterates the party line Even though Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke just repeated the party line in a slightly different way in his semi-annual testimony to Congress today, the message that the tapering of QE3 is not set in stone... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jul 13.) & Labour market (May/Jun 13) The minutes of July’s MPC minutes suggested that the new Governor Mark Carney has united the Committee around using forward guidance rather than more quantitative easing to boost the economy... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: QE or not QE? The suggestion by some commentators that the new lending facility unveiled by the Central Bank of Russia last week amounts to a form of quantitative easing seems wide of the mark. All the signs so far... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Broad money growth has stabilised at a healthy rate, but the further slowdown in the growth rate of bank lending is disconcerting. 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Monetary policy to remain loose even with Fed tapering Our research has consistently emphasised that monetary conditions in the major advanced economies are likely to remain exceptionally loose for several years even after the US Fed ends its asset... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s liquidity measures push policy rate cuts off the table The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) efforts to tighten liquidity have given a bounce to the rupee today. But greater currency stability, even if sustained, will come at the cost of a further economic... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Don’t take the pick-up in money growth too literally Boris Johnson suggests closing Heathrow and building a new airport at either Stansted or the Isle of Grain. (He is distancing himself from his original ‘Boris Island’ idea.) There could be serious... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) There are now some tentative signs that broad money supply is responding to the Bank of Japan’s more aggressive easing. Since April the broadest money measure has increased at the fastest pace in y/y... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
