UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The broad money supply is continuing to grow at a decent pace. But there are question marks over whether that will last now that the MPC has paused its quantitative easing (QE) programme and whether... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil central bank remains in dovish mood The decision by Brazil’s central bank to keep interest rates unchanged at a record low of 7.25% was expected, but the accompanying statement supports our view that they will remain at their current... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Next move in rates more likely to be down than up We expect the Bank of Canada to stick with its tightening bias in next week’s policy statement and through the early stages of next year, before removing it completely by early March. By then we... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s easing cycle on shaky ground The improvement in global risk appetite has provided Hungary’s National Bank with the scope to loosen policy. But persistent financial vulnerabilities mean that, without an IMF deal in place, the Bank... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Carney's departure bad timing for Canada Mark Carney's surprise decision to accept the head job at the Bank of England, after explicitly telling everyone he was not interested, adds to an already uncertain outlook for Canada. Moreover, it... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Governor Carney will face new challenges Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney is well-qualified to manage the Bank of England’s expanded role when he takes over from Mervyn King as Governor of the Bank of England at the end of next June... 26th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian easing cycle not yet over Colombian interest rates will probably fall further next year as external headwinds cause GDP growth to slow. By contrast, a weaker global economy could be helpful for Peru, where the latest economic... 26th November 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly All change at the Bank of Japan? We think that the markets would be wrong to expect major changes in the Bank of Japan’s monetary stance after the Lower House elections in December. For a start, it is not certain that the LDP will... 26th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa holds rates, easing to come next year The South African Reserve Bank kept its benchmark repo rate on hold at 5.00% today, but the prospect of subdued growth and easing inflation suggests that a rate cut is likely in 2013. 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Big challenges ahead for whoever is Governor It should not be long until we hear who will replace Sir Mervyn King as Governor of the Bank of England at the end of next June. It is thought that the appointment of a Bank “insider” might just lead... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Oct.) & MPC Minutes (Nov.) October’s public finance figures – the last before the Autumn Statement in a fortnight’s time – suggested that there is still a significant risk that the Chancellor will break his fiscal rules unless... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC signals more aggressive easing At today’s MPC meeting, the Turkish central bank highlighted that it is becoming increasingly concerned about “hot” capital inflows and signalled that these could be countered with aggressive policy... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Nigeria likely to cut rates next year The Central Bank of Nigeria kept interest rates on hold at 12.00% today, but the outlook for slowing inflation and sub-trend growth means that monetary easing is likely to come onto the agenda in 2013... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What next for the Bank of Japan? The election of an LDP-led government would be unlikely to result in the dramatic shift in policy at the Bank of Japan than many now seem to expect. Proposals that threaten the independence of the... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The Bank of Japan’s asset purchase program continues to drive growth in the monetary base. There are few signs of this feeding through to stronger credit demand. 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The annual growth rate of our measure of the broad M3 monetary aggregate edged up slightly to 5.5% in October and, with the Fed hinting at an expansion of its QE3 large-scale asset purchases in the... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
