UK Economics Update What will the MPC do as its gilts mature? At the start of next year, the MPC will have to decide what to do with those gilts purchased in its quantitative easing (QE) programme that are about to mature. We expect the Committee to maintain its... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore to loosen monetary policy next year The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) left its policy settings unchanged on Friday, as inflation fears outweighed concerns over growth. However, we think inflation worries will dissipate over the... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru keeps rates on hold as currency concerns resurface The Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) kept interest rates at 4.25% last night and is unlikely to make any changes to its benchmark rate until well into 2013. Concerns about the strength of the... 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More policy stimulus on the way in Korea The Bank of Korea (BoK) cut its policy rate by 25bp to 2.75% today, as expected. Growth has slowed sharply and is unlikely to rebound strongly anytime soon. With inflation set to remain low, there is... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why is Spain still dragging its heels? Spain’s delay in applying for a bail-out and hence triggering the ECB’s new bond buying plan probably reflects both political and financial considerations. But it can’t hold out for much longer. 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil rates on hold to 2014 Last night’s decision to cut Brazilian interest rates by 25bps to a new record low of 7.25% probably marks the end of the current easing cycle. But while most forecasters now expect the authorities to... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Does the ECB have a strong case for buying Spanish bonds? If Spain applied to the EFSF/ESM for a (partial) sovereign bail-out, the path would become clear for the ECB to buy Spanish government bonds under its Outright Monetary Transmissions (OMT) programme... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update IMF deal needed to stop the rot in Egypt Today’s data from the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) showing that foreign currency reserves fell in September highlight the importance of an IMF backstop when talks take place at the end of this month. 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan’s central bank aiming to rekindle investment In a bid to revive investment, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cut its policy rate for the second successive meeting on Friday. The SBP is likely to loosen monetary policy further, even at the risk... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Russia shifts tone The decision by the Central Bank of Russia to keep interests rates on hold at 8.25% was expected, but the accompanying statement revealed a subtle yet important shift in tone, with policymakers now... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How much scope do emerging markets have to loosen policy? Despite recent policy easing by the US Fed and the ECB, we expect global growth will continue to disappoint over the next couple of years. Against this gloomy background, prospects for emerging... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB plays its cards close to its chest President Draghi reiterated the ECB’s determination to preserve the single currency at today’s interest rate press conference, but there remains a large amount of uncertainty surrounding how the... 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Falling inflation lays the ground for more QE The MPC’s decision to leave policy on hold today was predictable given the absence of any major economic surprises in recent weeks. We still expect more asset purchases to be announced in November... 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update QE3: big risk or damp squib? There is growing concern among emerging market (EM) policymakers that a third dose of QE from the Fed will stoke hot money inflows to the developing world, and open up a new front in the so-called... 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Kuwait rate cut unlikely to boost economic growth Today’s cut in Kuwait’s benchmark interest rate will do little to boost output growth. Instead, the economy is in desperate need of political stability and progress on the government’s development... 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC waiting for further evidence before easing The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave interest rates on hold today suggests that policymakers want to see further evidence of a slowdown in the economy before easing policy. We doubt... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
