US Economics Update Fed in wait and see mode ahead of election After the fireworks at the last FOMC meeting in mid-September, when the Fed launched an open-ended QE3 and strengthened its forward-looking guidance on leaving its policy rate at near-zero, the two... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still overly optimistic on outlook The Bank's October Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents an overly optimistic outlook for Canada's economy. While weak foreign demand restrains Canada's exports, flagging domestic business confidence... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is a helicopter drop the answer? A so-called “helicopter drop” of money is generally seen as the nuclear option which will boost the economy if all else fails. However, it is not necessarily the radical step that it might seem. 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rate cut in November now looks off the cards South African inflation surprised to the upside in September, and we think it is likely to accelerate further to peak at around 6% y/y in early 2013. As such, we now think the Reserve Bank will keep... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Ind. Survey (Oct./Q4) & Mervyn King's Speech Today’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey for October and Q4 brought more gloomy news on the state of demand for manufactured goods. Meanwhile, Mervyn King left the door open to more quantitative easing in... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch New forecasts won’t prompt further asset purchases The main purpose of the Bank of Japan’s PolicyBoard meeting next Tuesday (30th) is for it toupdate its forecasts for GDP and inflation.Historically, policy setting has taken a backseat inthe second... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada hawkish bias targets households The Bank of Canada is still saying that its policy rate will need to rise from the current 1%, but there appears to have been a shift in its reasoning for maintaining the tightening bias. Given the... 23rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean rates to remain on hold for a few months yet Chilean policymakers kept interest rates on hold last night amid growing concerns over the strength of the peso. The resilience of domestic demand means that rates should stay unchanged in the near... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Currency concerns keep Egyptian rates on hold Egypt’s central bank kept interest rates on hold today as concerns over the fragile external funding position continue to outweigh the need to stimulate an ailing economy. 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rate cut a symbolic move Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) to cut its overnight lending rate – which forms the upper bound of its “interest rate corridor” – is a largely symbolic move that is most likely... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed unlikely to rock the boat again so soon After the launch of QE3 and the strengthening of its forward-looking guidance at the last meeting in mid-September, we don't anticipate any major changes from the Fed at next week's two-day FOMC... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) A sustained pick-up in bank lending helped support broad money growth in September, although the rate of expansion remains subdued. Household borrowing continues to be the main driver of bank lending... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand likely to loosen monetary policy again The Bank of Thailand (BoT) cut its repo rate by 25bp to 2.75% today. We think persistent global weakness will prompt the central bank to loosen its policy settings further. 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Oct.) & Labour Market Data (Aug./Sep.) October’s MPC minutes showed that the Committee is split over whether to do more quantitative easing (QE) once the current round of asset purchases are completed in the next couple of weeks. 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Hawkish bias likely to be scratched early next year We expect the Bank of Canada to retain its tightening bias in next week's policy statement. With the euro-zone taking a temporary step back from the brink and US consumers spending more freely, the... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) While the annual growth rates of the slightly narrower M1 and M2 monetary aggregates have slowed in recent months, the growth rate of our broader M3 measure has accelerated. Moreover, there is a good... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
