Emerging Europe Economics Update A little further to go in Hungary’s easing cycle Following today’s cut in Hungarian interest rates, we are revising our year-end rate forecast to 3.00% from 3.50%. With inflation below target and the economic recovery still fragile, it looks like... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Is "forward guidance" a step backwards? It’s going a bit far to claim that the Fed has lost all credibility simply because most in the markets were surprised by its decision not to begin winding down its asset purchase programme this month... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed fails to understand that sometimes, less is more We were a little surprised by the Fed's conclusion last week that it wasn't ready to begin tapering its asset purchases. As we wrote in our Fed Watch ahead of the meeting, however, a tapering was "far... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fed inaction brings the ECB respite, for now Last week’s surprise (to most people) decision by the US Federal Reserve not to “taper” its asset purchases has some near-term benefits for the euro-zone. But it does not eliminate the longer-term... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly US Fed helps out Mr Carney With UK gilt yields unhelpfully following US Treasury yields up in recent months, it was welcome that they followed them down last week. Admittedly, with the prospect of more QE receding and the... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Strong Q2 growth to temper talk of a rate cut Stronger-than-expected second quarter GDP growth in Colombia may temper expectations of interest rate cuts at next week’s monetary policy meeting. We continue to expect rates remain unchanged at 3.25%... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update More Egyptian rate cuts could be on the way The Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) decision to cut interest rates by 50bp today shows that policymakers are fully focussed on supporting the economy. With the backing of aid from the Gulf, additional... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What would a Taylor rule imply for global monetary policy? Applying a simple Taylor rule to our economic forecasts suggests that the Federal Reserve is the only major central bank which should tighten monetary policy (or scale back its stimulus) before 2016... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: rates on hold despite Fed surprise The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) left rates on hold today and gave no indication that any change was likely in the foreseeable future. Growth remains below trend, but policymakers expect... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Aug. 13) The further rise in existing home sales in August may reflect a rush of sales from buyers keen to avoid any further rise in mortgage interest rates. 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A reprieve for troubled EMs, but fundamental problems persist The Fed’s decision yesterday not to taper its asset purchases just yet provides some breathing room for the more troubled emerging economies. But their structural problems remain and uncertainty about... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB to remain in strongly accommodative mode Despite the improvement in financial market conditions, continued recovery of the Swiss economy and softening of the franc, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) re-emphasised today that it intends to... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank unlikely to hike before end-2014 Although the recent rise in inflation prompted the Norges Bank to bring forward its projected hiking cycle, we think that a slowdown in the economy will prevent the Bank hiking before the end of 2014. 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand set for a solid rebound New Zealand’s economy slowed in Q2, as drought hit agricultural and manufacturing production. However, there were encouraging signs of improvement in other areas of the economy, which bodes well for... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Credit slowdown set to weigh on Thailand’s growth Thailand’s economic growth since the global financial crisis has been supported by an unsustainable surge in credit. Cooling this credit boom is essential to avoid a future crisis but, as this happens... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank unlikely to hike before end-2014 Although the recent rise in inflation prompted the Norges Bank to bring forward its projected hikingcycle, we think that a slowdown in the economy will prevent the Bank hiking before the end of 2014. 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
