Asia Economics Update New Zealand to leave first rate hike until mid-2014 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% today. There is little immediate pressure on the central bank to hike rates, but accelerating economic growth and... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed waits for the fog to clear The latest policy statement from the Fed today is remarkable for what it omits rather than includes. There is no explicit mention of the government shutdown or what impact it might have on the economy... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Monetary and fiscal outlook points to further yen weakness The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its current policy settings at its Board meeting tomorrow. But in contrast to the US Fed, the question is whether the Japanese central bank will eventually have... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch QE has costs as well as benefits The realisation that the Fed is likely to go on buying assets at its current pace for longer than previously anticipated has once again focused attention on the costs of QE. The more apocalyptic... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s easing cycle nearing an end Hungarian policymakers cut interest rates again today, but there are a whole host of reasons to think that the easing cycle is nearing an end. The economy is recovering and core inflation is rising... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India cuts effective policy rate, but also has an eye on inflation India’s central bank has used the scope allowed by continued exchange rate stability to further roll back liquidity tightening measures that were introduced in the summer. However, an increase in the... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Inflation expectations pose little threat to guidance On close inspection, the recent rises in inflation expectations among households and in the gilt market appear to be nothing to worry about. The risk that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) abandons... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican central bank signals end of the easing cycle The Central Bank of Mexico (BANXICO) lowered interest rates to a new record low today but its accompanying statement gave a heavy hint that this would be the last cut in the easing cycle. With the... 25th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary GDP (Q3) & Mark Carney’s Speech The preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP confirmed that the UK economy is currently enjoying a period of healthy and well-balanced growth. Meanwhile, Mark Carney announced last night in a speech reforms to... 25th October 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Steady as she goes, perhaps for another 12 months The main agenda item at next Thursday’s meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board will be the new GDP and inflation forecasts to be published in the Bank’s “Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices”... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch QEternity? The two-week government shutdown means that the Fed is almost certain to leave the pace of its monthly asset purchases unchanged at its two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes on 30th October. The... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Gradual rate hikes in the Philippines next year The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) kept its main policy rate on hold today, against a backdrop of low inflation and continued strong economic growth. Looking ahead, although the central bank is... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish and Norwegian rates on hold until 2015 As expected, both the Swedish Riksbank and Norway’s Norges Bank both held their policy rates unchanged today. Given our below-consensus outlook for both economies, we do not expect either to hike... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish and Norwegian rates on hold until 2015 As expected, both the Swedish Riksbank and Norway’s Norges Bank both held their policy ratesunchanged today. Given our below-consensus outlook for both economies, we do not expect eitherto hike rates... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada throws in towel The Bank of Canada's decision to downgrade its economic outlook and drop its vague tightening bias supports our view that if there is any change in monetary policy over the near-term, it would be to... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish monetary conditions likely to remain tight The decision by the Turkish central bank to keep interest rates on hold today reflects the stabilisation of capital inflows and the strengthening of the lira over the past couple of months. But... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
