Emerging Europe Economics Update June PMIs suggest Central Europe’s recovery is losing steam Last month’s manufacturing PMI data for Emerging Europe were disappointing. The recovery in Central Europe appears to have lost momentum in Q2, while the data provide further evidence that the Turkish... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian rate hike still a long way off The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its policy rate at 2.5% today, and again made it clear that there will not be any changes in the near term. In fact, with mining investment set to fall and the... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch First rate hikes getting closer, but pace of tightening to be slow Recent developments suggest that the Bank of England and, perhaps, the US Federal Reserve may make their first rate hikes a little sooner than we had expected a month or two ago. However, global... 27th June 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB on hold to gauge effect of new policies The ECB is very unlikely to unveil additional policy support at its policy meeting on 3rd July as it waits to judge the effect of the raft of measures announced in June. President Draghi is likely to... 26th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC strikes a dovish note Having kept interest rates on hold earlier today, the Czech MPC maintained its dovish stance at the post meeting press conference. Given the subdued outlook for inflation, monetary conditions are... 26th June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan central bank in no rush to hike interest rates Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) today left interest rates on hold, but introduced a series of measures to try and cool property prices. Looking ahead, we believe the central bank will continue to tackle... 26th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Rebound in inflation won't change interest rate outlook The recent pick-up in inflation, which mainly reflects volatility in energy and food prices, won't change the Bank of Canada's neutral view on rates. With exports and investment still underperforming... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Interest rates in Hungary to remain low Having cut its benchmark interest rate earlier today, the National Bank of Hungary gave a pretty clear signal in the accompanying communiqué that further rate cuts are on the cards and that monetary... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Another selection of our non-consensus calls This Update provides some examples of where our views on the economic and market outlook differ significantly from the consensus. It draws on the range of country and regional services produced by our... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: pace of policy tightening to remain gradual Policymakers in Colombia hiked interest rates by another 25bp to 4% on Friday night and we expect the tightening cycle to remain gradual. Inflation is unlikely to be a major headache, while we expect... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed too complacent on inflation We don’t agree with Janet Yellen’s view that the recent rise in inflation is just noise. Instead, it is clear to us that a widespread strengthening in price pressures in areas as diverse as rents... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Maradona Carney turns full circle The trickle of warnings of a not-too-distant policy tightening from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) turned into something more closely resembling a flood last week. Ultimately, however, it is the... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Underlying price pressure has eased dramatically April’s consumption tax hike has made it more difficult to assess the strength of consumer price pressures. But different approaches that make allowance for the one-off impact of the tax increase lead... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Diesel price deregulation an early test for Modi in India Diesel subsidies in India have burned a sizeable hole in the government’s pocket over the past few years. But the stage appears to be set for a full deregulation of diesel prices in the coming months... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank opening its eyes to weakening economy As we expected given signs of a slowdown in the energy sector, the Norges Bank pushed back its first projected rate hike until 2016. Although the krone weakened on the news, the economic slowdown may... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Household financial leverage still dangerously high While Canadian policymakers will be somewhat relieved to learn that household financial leverage hasn't risen any higher this year, it hasn't fallen either, meaning that heavily indebted households... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
