Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary's easing cycle at an end, policy to stay extremely loose The National Bank of Hungary cut its benchmark interest rate by more than both we and the consensus expected earlier today, but followed this up with comments that its two-year long easing cycle is... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian rates on hold as elections muddy the waters The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept interest rates on hold at 12.0% today in what was Godwin Emefiele’s first meeting as governor. Looking ahead, rising inflation suggests that policy tightening is... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB edging slowly towards quantitative easing ECB President Mario Draghi’s statement last week that “QE falls squarely in our mandate” was perhaps the strongest signal yet that the ECB is considering bolder policy support. But Bundesbank... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How much do commodities matter to Malaysia? As one of the region's few net commodity exporters, there are some concerns that Malaysia is vulnerable to a fall in commodity prices. But Malaysia is not as dependent on commodities as is often... 18th July 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt hikes interest rates as inflation looks set to rise sharply The Egyptian central bank’s surprise decision to hike interest rates today appears to have been in anticipation of a sharp rise in inflation over the coming months. This follows the government’s... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African tightening cycle to remain gradual Having raised interest rates by 25bp today on account of rising inflation, it is clear that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is in the midst of a gradual tightening cycle. Further rate hikes are... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus France to fall further behind Germany The recent underperformance of the French economy compared to Germany reflects fundamentalfactors that will drive an even greater wedge between the two economies over time. Thisdivergence will... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey cuts rates, but easing cycle looks unsustainable The Turkish central bank continued to loosen monetary conditions today and pressure from the government means that further rate cuts look likely over the coming months. However, given the backdrop of... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions still easy Although the first US and UK interest rate hikes are now in sight, a combination offactors, including asset purchases by the Fed and BoJ and further policy easing bythe ECB, has caused global bond... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will EM assets shrug off tighter US monetary policy? Emerging market (EM) assets sold off sharply last year after the former Chairman of the US central bank hinted that unconventional policy stimulus was on borrowed time. But another rout is by no means... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian interest rates on hold until after elections Policymakers at the Brazilian central bank (BCB) left interest rates unchanged at 11.0% last night and we do not foresee any rate hikes until after October’s presidential election. But with high... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Lower interest rates won't prevent slowdown Canada's economy will struggle over the next two years due to a housing-induced slowdown that potentially could push the economy close to stagnation before the end of 2016. While export and investment... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada retains neutral bias The monetary policy statement shows that the Bank of Canada isn't concerned about higher inflation, since the recent rise is due to temporary factors, rather than improvements in economic fundamentals... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Low JGB yields not a sign of policy failure The persistently low level of Japanese government bond (JGB) yields is not necessarily a sign that“Abenomics” is failing. Indeed, a premature surge in borrowing costs could put the whole project... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s rate hike highlights fragile external position The decision by the National Bank of Ukraine to raise its discount rate earlier today serves as a reminder that, in spite of some positive developments over the past couple of months, the country’s... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: More interest rate cuts likely this year T he Chilean central bank cut interest rates last night and with policymakers clearly more concerned about weak growth than above-target inflation, we expect more reductions in the coming months. We... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
