Bank of Japan Watch Sticking to the course The two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, which concludes next Friday (20 th), is unlikely to result in any major policy changes, despite the recent flurry of speculation that fresh... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea in no hurry to raise rates The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate on hold today for the seventh consecutive month. With inflationary pressures low and the economy set to stage only a gradual recovery over the next year... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Odds just favour a QE taper this month We suspect that the renewed strength of employment growth in the past few months will be just enough to persuade the Fed to begin tapering its monthly asset purchases at next week's two-day FOMC... 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB can’t count on Fed tapering to weaken the euro The ECB cannot rely on the commencement of asset purchase tapering by the US Federal Reserve to bring the euro down from its potentially damaging levels. 10th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update People’s Bank edges forward with rate liberalisation There has been a rush of interesting data over the past couple of days suggesting that inflation pressures are low and domestic demand is faltering, though exports were less impressive than might... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB being complacent about deflation? For now at least, the ECB appears happy to leave its “powerful artillery” in the arsenal due to its fairly sanguine outlook for inflation. But rather than start to rise gently in line with the ECB’s... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Weaker Canadian dollar no panacea for economic blues The Bank of Canada's increasingly dovish stance explains only a small part of the recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar. We think it has more to do with the pullback in commodity prices... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia to raise rates sooner than expected In its latest move to rein in subsidy spending, the Malaysian government this week announced that it will hike electricity tariffs in 2014. Further subsidy cuts, particularly on the fuel front, are... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: further rate cuts may come in 2014 In spite of October’s rise in inflation, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) decided to cut interest rates today. It looks like the decision was prompted by the weakness of recent hard activity data, as... 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Pressure on the ECB to take further action set to grow President Draghi emphasised at December’s interest rate press conference that the ECB has a “powerful artillery of instruments available”. And the pressure on it to use these instruments looks set to... 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC's inaction speaks louder than words While the MPC’s communications have arguably become a little less clear over the last month or two, Committee members seem united in the fundamental belief that inflation pressures will remain subdued... 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank dashes hopes that hiking cycle may be over The minutes to last month’s COPOM meeting, released this morning, will dash hopes that Brazilian policymakers might call a halt to interest rate hikes at their next meeting in January. 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norwegian interest rates on hold until at least mid-2015 The weakening Norwegian economy prompted the Norges Bank to push back its tightening cycle today. With the Bank revising down its economic forecasts closer to our own, we agree with its new projection... 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian interest rates on hold until at least mid-2015 The weakening Norwegian economy prompted the Norges Bank to push back its tightening cycle today. With the Bank revising down its economic forecasts closer to our own, we agree with its new projection... 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada shuffling closer to a rate cut Although the Bank of Canada maintained its neutral stance as expected, its policy statement showed that it does have more concerns about the growth and inflation outlook, just not enough right now to... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rate hikes unlikely until 2015 Governor Belka reiterated his “forward guidance” at today’s post-MPC meeting press conference, pledging not to raise interest rates until the end of the first half of 2014 at the earliest. For our... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
