Asia Economic Outlook China to slow, but faster growth elsewhere Most of Emerging Asia should enjoy a steady recovery in 2014-15 on the back of loose monetary policy and an expected recovery in the developed world. China is the main exception. Recently announced... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan rate hikes possible later this year The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) kept interest rates on hold today and, with inflation likely to ease over the coming months, there is no immediate pressure to tighten policy. But a large current... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy still has plenty of spare capacity Some commentators have suggested that the global business cycle is now quite advanced and that markets should expect much tighter monetary policy as soon as 2015. We disagree. 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Fed will eventually have to hike rates more rapidly The markets are happy to take the Fed at its word that it won't begin to raise rates until mid-2015 and will tighten only gradually after that, but we fear that rising wage and price inflation will... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Are our above-consensus rental forecasts too downbeat? Our expectations for GDP growth this year have been revised up and are well above consensus. However, our expectations for commercial property rental growth over 2014-15 (an average of more than 2.5%y... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is QE finally on the way? Last week’s assertions from Mario Draghi that the ECB stands ready to use all instruments allowed by the EU Treaty looked like a hint that it is finally considering engaging in quantitative easing... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Rate hikes unlikely this year despite stronger growth The world economy has entered 2014 with a lot more momentum than it had a year ago. Business and consumer confidence have improved and unemployment is falling rapidly in several countries. However... 10th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Sharp rise in housing starts The strong 22.7% m/m increase in housing starts in November was an encouraging sign that the rise in mortgage interest rates is not a permanent setback for the homebuilding recovery. This gain echoed... 10th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rate cut still on the cards in Peru this year The Peruvian Central Bank (BCRP) left interest rates on hold last night, but with growth now settling at slower rates we think that policy will be eased this year. Concerns over the strength of... 10th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi prepares the ground for more action President Draghi’s repeated assertions at today’s press conference that the ECB stands ready to use all instruments allowed by its Treaty suggested that more policy action is on the way. While another... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC likely to adapt forward guidance soon While today’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting passed without event, the Committee may soon adjust its forward guidance. Since there are no signs that falling unemployment is stoking inflation... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia on hold, no hikes on the horizon Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates on hold for the second consecutive month, suggesting it has become less concerned by the weakness of the currency. Looking ahead, with inflation set to... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Consumer price inflation fell further in December on the back of a sharp drop in food inflation. It may rebound this month due to the usual price volatility around Chinese New Year but is likely to... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea to keep rates on hold until 2015 The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate on hold today for the eighth consecutive month. With the economy set to stage a gradual recovery over the next year and inflationary pressures likely to... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Undervaluation unlikely to prevent further yen weakness The yen is now “undervalued” on most measures. However, deviations from fundamental value can, of course, persist for a very long time and should not prove an obstacle to fresh declines. We continue... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The leader of the pack? The UK economy has leapt towards the top of the international growth table and there are good reasons to think it can stay there. We now expect the economy to grow by 3% this year and next. 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
