Europe Economics Update ECB finally facing facts President Draghi’s comments at Jackson Hole supported our long-held view that the ECB will take theplunge into full-blown quantitative easing, probably around the turn of the year. 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen stands her ground on slack If the release of the minutes of July’s FOMC meeting on Wednesday suggested that the Fed had takentwo steps closer to raising interest rates, then today’s speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen at Jackson... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the rebels muster a majority soon? Past experience suggests that the emergence of a minority vote to raise interest rates at August’s MPC meeting is unlikely to have brought the first rate hike any closer. For a start, minority votes... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed moving closer to rate hike The minutes of the FOMC meeting that took place at the end of July suggest that the Fed has takenanother step closer towards raising interest rates. This is consistent with our view that “lift-off”... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets unfazed by split MPC vote The frequently changing tone of the MPC’s communications has continued to buffet UK markets.However, the net effect of the dovish Inflation Report, the Governor’s more hawkish press commentslast... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The recent rapid rise in bank loans, which is partly being driven by auto loans, is not a cause for concern and instead is a sign that the economy is becoming stronger. 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions still loose Global monetary conditions have remained highly accommodative even though theUS Fed is now just a couple of months away from completing QE3. The latest senior loan officer surveys show that the demand... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack CEE recovery loses steam The raft of second quarter GDP data released in Central and South Eastern Europe this month showed that growth eased across much of the region. It’s tempting to interpret this as a sign that the... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sedlabanki hints that rate hikes will soon be needed Iceland’s central bank kept its main interest rate unchanged at 6% at its meeting today but hintedstrongly that rates will need to rise soon. We continue to think that the Sedlabanki will raise... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Glimmers of hope for reform of South Africa’s labour market South Africa’s labour market rigidities have been a key constraint on economic growth over the past few years, but some recent developments have given glimmers of hope that much-needed reform can be... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Aug.) The minutes of August’s MPC meeting, revealing the first split interest rate vote since July 2011, indicate that a 2014 rate hike cannot be ruled out. But the low inflation outlook suggests the odds... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update An anatomy of the EM slowdown Despite the recent attention given to the EM slowdown, it actually began back in 2010, and growth has been stuck at a sluggish rate for the last two years. The BRIC economies account for much of the... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sedlabanki hints that rate hikes will soon be needed Iceland’s central bank kept its main interest rate unchanged at 6% at its meeting today but hinted strongly that rates will need to rise soon. We continue to think that the Sedlabanki will raise the... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Stronger data to delay Norges Bank rate cut Recent Norwegian economic data suggest that a September rate cut is less likely than we hadpreviously thought. But we still think the Norges Bank will cut its key policy rate, currently at 1.5%,by the... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How might votes for rate hikes in the UK affect markets? If tomorrow’s minutes of the UK Monetary Policy Committee’s latest meeting reveal that some members voted to raise interest rates earlier this month, short-term Gilt yields may rise and sterling... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Has forward guidance been a success? One year on, the report card for the MPC’s forward guidance is decidedly mixed. While it may have boosted confidence, it seems to have fallen short of meeting the MPC’s aims of clarifying its... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
