Africa Economics Update Interest rate hikes still on the cards in Kenya The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.50% today, but the weakness of the shilling and the likelihood of a further rise in inflation mean that rate hikes are... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian rates to stay low for longer than generally thought The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its policy rate on hold at 2.5% at its meeting today, as widely expected. With recent data weak, most analysts have reined in their expectations for policy... 2nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: interest rates on hold, further tightening unlikely The Egyptian central bank’s decision to keep interest rates on hold today appears to confirm that July’s rate hike was a one-off in response to higher inflation following the government’s recent... 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Continued moderate growth in broad money and bank lending indicates that there is still no pressingneed for the Monetary Policy Committee to raise interest rates quickly over the next year or so. 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian tightening cycle nearing the end Colombian policymakers increased interest rates by 25bp to 4.50% on Friday but we think that the current tightening cycle is drawing to a close. The pace of economic growth is likely to slow over the... 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch How important is the second sales tax hike to the BoJ? Despite the recent run of weak data, the Bank of Japan may strike a more positive tone about the economy at its meeting this week, while leaving policy settings unchanged. This would dampen hopes of... 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak data increase the chance of ECB QE Events last week gave support to our long-held view that the ECB will have to take the plunge and launch a full-blown quantitative easing programme in the coming months. Survey data added to mounting... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Weaker growth looms for twin deficit countries Ghana’s authorities bowed to the inevitable earlier this month by formally requesting assistance from the IMF in dealing with the country’s enormous twin budget and current account deficits. This... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Mexico turning the corner The past month has brought signs that Mexico’s economy is finally turning the corner. latestdata suggest that the Mexican economy has turned the corner. GDP expanded by a seasonally-adjusted 1.0% q/q... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Weak inflation affords MPC more time We doubt that new dissenters Martin Weale or Ian McCafferty will manage to persuade any of the other seven MPC members to vote to raise interest rates at September’s meeting. The recent weakness of... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to hint strongly at QE and ultimately deliver The ECB finally seems to be facing facts, withPresident Mario Draghi conceding at Jackson Holethat the economy is too weak and that inflationexpectations have dropped. We do not expect anyaction this... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Growth in the Philippines to accelerate further GDP growth in the Philippines accelerated in the second quarter of the year, due to a strong contribution from net exports. Looking ahead, prospects for both exports and domestic demand look healthy... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Export rebound won't prompt a shift in neutral stance We expect the Bank of Canada to retain its neutral interest rate bias in next week's policy statement. Although exports have rebounded surprisingly well, the Bank's Governor doesn't seem convinced... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers too sanguine on external vulnerabilities The decision by Turkey’s central bank to cut its overnight lending rate, which forms the upper bound of the corridor in which market rates are allowed to fluctuate, suggests that it is becoming less... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch What did we learn from Jackson Hole? Last week’s gathering of central bankers at Jackson Hole served to underline the gulf between labour market conditions in the major advanced economies. We suspect that these differences will lead to a... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Further ECB easing could see Bund yields rebound The weakness of the euro-zone economy and the persistent threat of deflation should keep German government bond (Bund) yields relatively low. However, any scaling back of fiscal austerity and the... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
