UK Housing Market Focus Will Mark Carney need to rein in the housing market? The recovery in house prices has been accompanied by concerns that an unsustainable bubble is developing. At the moment, the indicators on housing market activity favoured by the Bank of England are... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EMs to enter tapering on a sound footing Fed tapering may trigger more turbulence in Emerging Market (EM) asset prices over the coming days and months, but the latest Capital Economics Risks Indicator (CERI) suggests that tighter global... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Data (Oct./Nov.) & MPC Minutes (Dec.) While the latest labour market figures have raised the chances that the jobless rate falls below the MPC’s 7% threshold in 2014, December’s minutes suggested that the benign inflation outlook will... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s hiking cycle looks to be over The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept policy rates on hold at its meeting today. Given that the economic recovery is still very fragile, the central bank is likely to remain patient with inflation... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could Hungary's investment market be on the cusp of recovery? There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the outlook for the Hungarian commercial property investment market. This afternoon’s further cut in interest rates, to a fresh record low of 3%... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe to keep rates low, Turkey set to tighten The Turkish central bank took small steps to tighten monetary conditions today but, given the country's vulnerability to Fed tapering, more aggressive measures could be needed next year. In contrast... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish Riksbank likely to soften its stance further The Swedish Riksbank's decision to reduce interest rates is unlikely to have a major positive impact on the economy. We expect GDP to continue to grow at a lacklustre pace, suggesting that the... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank likely to soften its stance further The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to reduce interest rates is unlikely to have a major positive impact on the economy. We expect GDP to continue to grow at a lacklustre pace, suggesting that the... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Strong pace of sales growth also supports QE taper Last week we learned that business inventories and sales both posted sizeable gains in October, while the retail sales figures showed another decent gain in November. As a result, we now expect fourth... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Local government debt key challenge for 2014 China's government has sounded a sanguine note about GDP growth at the close of its Economic Work Conference. Monetary policy will remain "prudent" and fiscal policy "proactive" in 2014. In practice... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian rate cuts now look unlikely The latest rise in Russian inflation, coupled with mounting concerns over the rapid expansion of consumer credit, mean that even the modest cuts in interest rates that we had pencilled in for early... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rate cuts still likely in Chile and Peru in 2014 Policymakers in both Chile and Peru left interest rates unchanged last night, but we continue to expect monetary policy to be loosened next year as economic growth slows. We have pencilled in 50bp of... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack New home sales make up for earlier rate-related losses The sharp 25.4% m/m increase in new home sales in October reversed the decline during the previous three months and left new home sales back at their level before mortgage interest rates rose. That's... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further tightening unlikely in Indonesia Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates on hold, as expected. With inflation probably having peaked, the current account deficit shrinking, and signs that the central bank is becoming less... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines set for prolonged hold to support reconstruction The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left interest rates on hold today, as expected. Looking ahead, we expect the BSP will keep monetary policy settings unchanged until 2015 as it looks to... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand still likely to wait until Q2 to hike rates The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% today. In its statement, the central bank sounded slightly more hawkish on inflation, but it still looks like it will wait... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
