US Economics Update A new policy rule for the post-crisis era Most monetary policy rules, many of which suggest that interest rates should already have risen, arelargely useless in the post-crisis world. If we make adjustments to allow for a lower neutral rate... 11th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Mr Draghi talks down the euro, but action needed While last week’s ECB Governing Council meeting offered few signs of imminent further policymeasures, one encouraging development was President Draghi’s willingness to talk down theeuro. But we think... 11th August 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Does Korea need lower interest rates? A sharp slowdown in the Korean economy last quarter and dovish rhetoric from the central bank has raised expectations that interest rates will be cut at Thursday’s scheduled policy meeting. With the... 11th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 GDP data to show Central Europe’s recovery losing steam The raft of second quarter GDP data due to be published next week is likely to show that the recovery in Central and South Eastern Europe lost steam. Worryingly, having made a bright start to Q2... 8th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian policymakers to tread carefully Interest rates in Peru were left on hold at 3.75% last night and we think that above-target inflation and a large current account deficit mean that policymakers are likely to resist aggressive... 8th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ may still have to step up pace of easing The BoJ left policy settings unchanged today, and may merely confirm that QQE will be maintained in its current form at the October meeting. However, we expect inflation to fall short of the Bank's... 8th August 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What will Fed rate hikes mean for Asia? EM assets sold off sharply last year after the US Fed hinted that QE was on borrowed time, with some of Asia's major economies getting caught up in the turmoil. Markets have become jittery again in... 8th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB inching towards QE The ECB gave no strong hints of imminent policy action this month as it waited to judge the effects ofpreviously announced measures and claimed that long-term inflation expectations were wellanchored... 7th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Low inflation should limit pace of rate hikes The continued strength of the UK’s recovery suggests that today’s vote to keep Bank Rate at 0.5% maynot have been unanimous and that a rate hike this year cannot be ruled out. Even so, the outlook... 7th August 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Weaker Saudi credit growth could be here to stay The past few months have brought further evidence that credit growth is coming off the boil in parts of the Gulf. As we explain in this Watch, there are reasons to think that this could prove to be... 7th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three scenarios for Russia’s economy The deepening political crisis between Russia and the US/Europe means that the uncertainties attached to economic forecasts are even greater than usual. In these circumstances it makes more sense to... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil Election Watch: A blueprint for reform There are a number of ways in which the winning candidate in October’s presidential elections could help to turn around Brazil’s struggling economy. But efforts will need to be targeted on structural... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Diverging inflation rates The rebound in the US economy in Q2 from its weather-induced downturnshould mean that global growth in the second quarter was much stronger thanin Q1. What’s more, business surveys suggest that... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand to keep rates on hold until 2015 The Bank of Thailand (BoT) unsurprisingly held its policy rate at 2.0% at its meeting today amid an improving growth outlook. But as the economy may take some time to achieve a sustained recovery, we... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian rates could be cut sooner than expected The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) left its policy rates on hold today, as expected, but with inflation on a downward trend there should be scope for the RBI to cut rates sooner than most analysts expect... 5th August 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian rates to stay on hold for some time yet The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its policy rate on hold at 2.5% again today, and reiterated in its statement that it does not expect to make any rate changes in the near term. We think the... 5th August 2014 · 1 min read
