Europe Economics Update ABS purchases will not take QE off the table The ECB’s prospective ABS purchases might ultimately help to strengthen the euro-zone financial system. But they will not stave off the immediate disinflationary pressures facing the region. 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Modest interest rate hikes in Kenya still on the cards Interest rates in Kenya were kept on hold at 8.5% today but, given the country’s large current account deficit and the fact that inflation is likely to rise above the Central Bank’s (CBK’s) target... 8th July 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch More easing still required as BoJ “only halfway there” Until recently, the majority of analysts had expected the Bank of Japan to announce more easing at the meeting that concludes next Tuesday (15th July). But recent upbeat communication by central bank... 8th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norway set for several bouts of monetary loosening The Swedish Riksbank’s interest rate cut last week will put pressure on the Norges Bank to follow suit. We expect the Bank to cut its policy rate by the end of the year. And as spending in the energy... 8th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook As good as it gets? While the European economic recovery probably picked up a bit of speed in the second quarter of the year, there are growing signs that Q2 was as good as it is likely to get. Activity indicators in the... 8th July 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway set for several bouts of monetary loosening The Swedish Riksbank’s interest rate cut last week will put pressure on the Norges Bank to follow suit. We expect the Bank to cut its policy rate by the end of the year. And as spending in the energy... 8th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will the US stock market handle Fed tightening? The US stock market has tended to fare quite well during previous Fed tightening cycles. Although we think its performance in the next cycle will be below average, we still expect it to creep higher. 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How will the US stock market handle Fed tightening? The US stock market has tended to fare quite well during previous Fed tightening cycles. Although we think its performance in the next cycle will be below average, we still expect it to creep higher. 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What more can the Czech National Bank do? The Czech National Bank (CNB) struck a dovish note at last week’s MPC meeting and is clearly concerned about the threat of deflation. For now, we suspect that the Bank is unlikely to take further... 4th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Weaker credit growth to weigh on region Most countries in Emerging Asia should record reasonable growth over the next couple of years, helped by a combination of supportive monetary policy and a pick-up in demand from advanced economies... 4th July 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Split vote unlikely just yet The acceleration of the jobs market recovery and more hawkish comments from the Governor over the last month suggest that an interest rate rise before the end of the year cannot be ruled out. But... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB rests on its laurels The ECB is relying strongly on measures announced last month to counter the threat of deflation, but we doubt that they will be effective. A bolder programme of asset purchases is still likely to be... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish Riksbank takes steps to tackle deflation Sweden’s central bank today cut its main policy rate by a bigger-than-expected 50bp to 0.25% and pushed back the date at which it first expects to raise rates until the end of 2015 in order to fight... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank takes steps to tackle deflation Sweden’s central bank today cut its main policy rate by a bigger-than-expected 50bp to 0.25% and pushed back the date at which it first expects to raise rates until the end of 2015 in order to fight... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish monetary policy to remain extremely supportive The National Bank of Poland’s MPC struck a dovish note at this afternoon’s post-meeting pressconference, with Governor Belka flagging the possibility of an interest rate cut in the coming months... 2nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Market implications of our revised forecast for Fed policy We now think that the US FOMC will tighten monetary policy sooner, and by more, than we had previously envisaged. Our revised view is that the federal funds rate will end 2016 at 3.0%, rather than 2.5... 2nd July 2014 · 1 min read
