UK Economics Update MPC probably united ahead of Inflation Report With the economic recovery proceeding more quickly than the MPC expected, but little pressure on forward guidance’s knockouts, today’s decision to leave policy unchanged was probably a unanimous one... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate hike in Malaysia likely in first half of 2014 Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% at its meeting today. As the economy gains a firmer footing on the back of improving export prospects over the next year, we expect... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How big a problem is local government debt? China’s local governments have taken on unhealthy amounts of debt over the last few years but, unlike many, we do not think this should rank among policymakers’ primary concerns. Instead, we would... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack ECB likely to soften stance but refrain from action The fall in euro-zone CPI inflation to a four year low of 0.7% has raised the prospect of a bout of outright deflation in the euro-zone economy. While cost pressures are not as weak as they were when... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish National Bank extends “forward guidance” The Polish National Bank extended its version of “forward guidance” today, stating that interest rates will be left on hold until the second half of next year. We think the existence of significant... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No rebound in Indonesia’s growth likely soon Data released today showed that the pace of economic growth in Indonesia slowed again in Q3. Looking ahead, high inflation and recent interest rate hikes will weigh on growth over the next year. 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery strengthens and broadens The economic recovery still seems to be gathering speed. The 0.8% quarterly rise in GDP in the third quarter was the strongest expansion seen since Q2 2010. And whereas a year or so ago, the recovery... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBR Governor signals further easing to come in Romania Having lowered interest rates earlier today, Romania’s National Bank Governor, Mugur Isarescu, gave a strong hint that further cuts are likely in the months ahead. This dovish stance has been... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan rate hikes possible next year The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) kept interest rates on hold today and, with inflation having peaked, pressure to raise rates in the near term has eased. But a large current account deficit that is... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s central bank still likely to cut again next year The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its policy rate on hold at 2.5% today, as expected. However, we still expect further loosening in early 2014, and think that rates will remain very low for the... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
BoE Watch No change in policy ahead of Inflation Report With GDP growth in Q3 coming in slightly above the MPC's forecast and unemployment falling more rapidly than expected, when the Committee might reconsider the stance of monetary policy has continued... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rising inflation behind decision to keep Egypt rates on hold The accompanying press release provided little justification as to why, having eased policy at its previoustwo meetings, the Egyptian central bank left interest rates on hold today. We suspect that... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch A softer stance With the economic recovery still pretty fragile, the euro climbing higher and inflation falling sharply, President Draghi may adopt a slightly softer stance at the ECB’s interest rate press conference... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Low inflation to delay Colombian interest rate hikes The monetary easing cycle in Colombia appears to now be over but, by the same token, interest rate hikes are probably still some way off. We expect rates to remain lower for longer than most expect... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Taper delay keeps monetary conditions loose With the Fed likely to keep the monetary taps flowing for even longer than previously expected, the world will be awash with liquidity for a long time to come. There are tentative signs that this is... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan in no hurry to ease further The BoJ today only marginally tweaked its economic forecasts, and took a sanguine view of the upcoming consumption tax hike. It was therefore no surprise that policy settings were left unchanged... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
