RBA Watch Keeping its rate cut promise The recent stronger-than-expected data means that a cut in interest rates at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy meeting on Tuesday 5 th May is no longer a done deal. But we still think the... 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Has the threat of deflation passed already? Signs that price pressures have picked up a bit during the past month or two have prompted some to suggest that the threat of deflation has vanished almost as suddenly as it appeared. We disagree. In... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia’s economy slumps, growth weakens in Turkey The region’s two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – have continued to struggle over the past month. Russia’s economy appears to have contracted sharply by around 3% y/y in Q1. Meanwhile, we... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: limited room for interest rate cuts this year Interest rates in Colombia were left unchanged at 4.50% on Friday night and above target inflation and a large current account deficit limit the room for monetary easing to counter slowing economic... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ could spring another surprise With economic activity sluggish and inflation slowing, we think it is a question of when rather than if the Bank will step up the pace of its asset purchases. Mr Kuroda has given no hint recently –... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is the RBA losing faith in monetary policy? While we agree that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is right to conclude that monetary policy is less effective now than before the global financial crisis, we disagree with suggestions that this... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Relative calm unlikely to last In a relatively quiet week, oil prices consolidated their recent gains as the consensus swung round to our view that the lows recorded in Q1 would prove to be the turning point. However, powerful... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weak first quarter won't stop the Fed hiking rates this year The Fed is still likely to raise its policy rate later this year. A September lift-off is the marginal favourite, but June and July are possibilities, if it becomes clear quickly that the first... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Grexit risks underline need for MPC caution Although all eyes are on the general election due to take place in less than a fortnight, developments across the Channel have the potential to be just as important an influence on the UK economy in... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly A manufacturing migration? Rapid wage growth, rising land costs and the appreciation of the renminbi have all helped to make China a less attractive place for low-end manufacturers to operate. Recent trends in foreign direct... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Has QQE really lifted inflation expectations? In contrast to the Bank of Japan, we are far from convinced that QQE has lifted inflation expectations. In fact, wage and price setting behaviour have changed little since the programme was launched... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt stands pat as inflation rises The decision by the Central Bank of Egypt to leave interest rates unchanged today was a close call, but it looks like the recent rise in inflation tipped the balance on the MPC away from lowering... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Region’s politics take another twist The conflict in Yemen and an outline nuclear agreement between Iran and the West has thrust the region’s politics back into the spotlight. Although it looks like problems in Yemen are likely to drag... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) April’s fall in the euro-zone composite PMI suggested that fears over Greece might already be starting to dampen economic growth in the region, offsetting any boost from loose monetary policy and the... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth sinks as BRICs woes deepen EM growth appears to have sunk to a post-crisis low of around 4% y/y in the first quarter of this year, driven in large part by a deepening downturn in the BRICs. China has grabbed most of the... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets underestimating potential election impact On the whole, the consensus view in the markets still appears to be that the result of the general election will not have major consequences for UK asset prices. If markets had become concerned, then... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
