Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada throws in towel The Bank of Canada's decision to downgrade its economic outlook and drop its vague tightening bias supports our view that if there is any change in monetary policy over the near-term, it would be to... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish monetary conditions likely to remain tight The decision by the Turkish central bank to keep interest rates on hold today reflects the stabilisation of capital inflows and the strengthening of the lira over the past couple of months. But... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Policy uncertainty will persist for some time Congress has thankfully agreed to reopen the Federal government and raise the debt ceiling, but the short-term fix means that fiscal uncertainty will continue to act as a drag on the economic recovery... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC minutes (Oct. 13) October’s MPC minutes yielded little for Bank of England watchers, with the Committee unanimously in favour of keeping policy unchanged. While unemployment is falling a little faster than the... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will the Fed’s “exit” stifle the global recovery? Since May this year, when US bond yields started to rise, market participants have been concerned about the implications for the global recovery of the Fed scaling back its policy support. In our view... 22nd October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary policy now a slave to fiscal uncertainty Even if Congress manages to keep the Federal government open and raise the debt ceiling next year, the continuing fiscal uncertainty is only going to make the Fed's job that much harder. That fiscal... 18th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile cuts rates as economic slowdown takes hold While the timing of last night’s interest rate cut in Chile was a little unexpected, it nonetheless confirms our long-held belief that the central bank would begin trimming its benchmark rate by the... 18th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weak activity data point to another Mexican interest rate cut The continued disappointing performance of the Mexican economy makes it is increasingly likely that last month’s interest rate cut was not a one-off. We have now pencilled in a 25bp reduction to 3.5%... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Economic growth outlook likely to be downgraded We don't expect the Bank of Canada to make any major changes in next week's policy statement (Wednesday, 23rd October). While weak exports and business confidence are likely to have prompted some... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US debt crisis should not stifle global recovery If the political fight over the US debt ceiling goes to the wire, or beyond, there will be negative implications for the US economy. But the impact on the rest of the world should be fairly small. 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How long will the Hong Kong peg last? The Hong Kong dollar peg was introduced 30 years ago this week. Although the peg creates a number of problems, it remains the best option. We expect it to remain in place for many more years. 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No rate changes in Thailand through to mid-2014 The Bank of Thailand kept its policy rate unchanged today at a low of just 2.50% against a backdrop of low inflation and weak growth. Although interest rates hikes are likely to start next year, the... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank allows the dust to settle Having introduced an entirely new benchmark interest rate at its last meeting and unveiled new lending facilities at each of its two meetings prior to that, the Central Bank of Russia opted to do... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore's outlook is upbeat, despite Q3 contraction Today’s GDP data showed that Singapore's economy contracted in Q3. Nevertheless, the outlook remains upbeat. As such, the MAS saw no reason to change its policy stance at its meeting today. We do not... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru in no rush to cut rates despite slowing economy Peru’s central bank (BCRP) extended its long pause on interest rates last night and gave few hints that a change of policy is on the cards. Following a recent downgrade to the BCRP’s 2013 growth... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack As good as it gets? Japan’s export-oriented manufacturing sector is benefiting from the recovery in the global economy and the weakness in the yen, but the signals on domestic demand are mixed. Business spending does... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
