Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank unlikely to hike before end-2014 Although the recent rise in inflation prompted the Norges Bank to bring forward its projected hikingcycle, we think that a slowdown in the economy will prevent the Bank hiking before the end of 2014. 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada's economic rebound unlikely Governor Stephen Poloz's speech today indicated that that the Bank of Canada is doubling-down on its earlier bet that the economy is poised for a comeback, led by a rebound in exports and then... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed delays taper; then fails to offer a clear explanation why The Fed's decision to maintain its asset purchases at $85bn per month was, given that most commentators expected a modest reduction in the pace today, unsurprisingly bond and equity positive. We... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: twin deficits to keep monetary policy tight A failure to sufficiently rein in large budget and current account deficits means that further monetary tightening is still likely in Ghana, despite the Central Bank’s decision to keep interest rates... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fed tapering and Latin America: a recap All eyes will be firmly fixed on today’s US FOMC meeting in anticipation of the announcement that the Fed will begin scaling back its programme of asset purchases under QE3. But for the economies of... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fed tapering could test the ECB's resolve We don’t expect the announcement of Fed tapering to have an immediately adverse effect on the euro-zone’s financial markets and economy. But a new phase in which other central banks are starting to... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC minutes (Sep.) September’s MPC minutes suggest that, despite the arguably disappointing impact of forward guidance, the Committee is happy with its policy stance. A resumption of quantitative easing (QE) before the... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The economic impact of Fed tapering revisited We expect the Fed to announce a small reduction in its asset purchases at the conclusion of today’s FOMC meeting. In this Update we revisit the implications for EMs and explain why, despite the market... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers waiting for “taper” reaction Having been promised “surprise” measures to shore up the lira by Governor Basci, today’s Turkish rate setting meeting was a non-event. Policymakers appear to be waiting to see how the financial... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Over the past few months, broad money has grown at the fastest pace in several years in y/y terms. However, the Bank of Japan can only take part of the credit: the initial acceleration happened well... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The decline in the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index to a five-month low of 76.8 in September, from 82.1, reflects the surge in interest rates and the drop in stock markets, although... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Aug.) August’s retail sales data weren’t as good as expected, but they still suggest that underlying consumption growth is accelerating. Although next week’s Fed decision will be a close call, we still... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia rate overhaul won’t alter monetary conditions The Central Bank of Russia today laid out plans to revamp and streamline the instruments through which it provides liquidity to banks. Over time, these should help to increase transparency but they... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rate cuts still likely in Chile and Peru The stronger tone of recent data means that the case for monetary easing in both Chile and Peru is less convincing than it was only a few months ago. Nonetheless, policymakers in both countries will... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update When will Denmark normalise monetary policy? Denmark’s year-long experiment with negative deposit rates is likely to come to an end next year. But we think that markets are wrong to expect a second rate hike before the end of 2014. 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update When will Denmark normalise monetary policy? Denmark’s year-long experiment with negative deposit rates is likely to come to an end next year. Butwe think that markets are wrong to expect a second rate hike before the end of 2014. 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
